Central Asian countries, faced with disruptions to their traditional transport links and the escalating confrontation between major global powers, are being forced to seek new ways to maintain access to external markets.
One potential path is the development of the Trans-Caspian route, or the Middle Corridor: China — Central Asia — Caspian Sea — South Caucasus — Europe.
Infrastructure lagging behind the agenda
The respondents identified the following advantages of the Middle Corridor:
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diversification of export and import routes;
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the integration of all Central Asian countries into a single logistics chain;
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strengthened ties with the EU, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and China;
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the opportunity to stimulate the development of transport infrastructure, logistics hubs, and employment along the route.
«The challenges of the Middle Corridor are defined by its geography — the need for multimodal transportation and crossings of the Caspian and Black seas. Ensuring seamless multimodal transportation requires the development of both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ infrastructure,» the report states.
From a technical perspective, the route also faces a number of challenges: limited port capacity on the Caspian Sea, a shortage of vessels to handle growing freight volumes, and inconsistent rail infrastructures in several countries.
The report’s compilers also noted the high transportation costs: currently, shipping a container along the Middle Corridor averages $5,500, with delivery times of 30 days or more. By comparison, costs via the Northern Route start at $3,200 with delivery times of 22 days, while the Southern Corridor costs around $5,500 with delivery times of 26 days or more.
The report devotes a section to so-called «soft infrastructure»: delays are regularly recorded at borders — primarily between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan — due to the lack of digital data exchange. The absence of integrated information systems increases risks, reduces speed, and hinders traffic growth.
External constraints
External factors pose significant constraints to the project. The first of these is Russia’s position, which is currently neutral, according to the report, but could change if the corridor becomes more active.
According to Russian experts, the cost of transit along the Trans-Siberian Railway — an electrified line stretching approximately 10,000 km across Russian territory — is 30% lower than transportation along the Middle Corridor. The technical capabilities of the Trans-Siberian Railway can handle up to 100 million tonnes of freight per year; currently, neither the Middle Corridor nor the North-South Corridor has comparable capacity.
«Theoretically, the Middle Corridor project partially competes with Russian logistics routes, but Russia has not yet officially responded to its promotion and does not view it as a competitive project... For their part, experts in Central Asian countries fear that this political silence could give way to active opposition and create a clash of interests with Russia,» the report states.
At the same time, uncertainty persists around the Zangezur Corridor, and relations between Türkiye and Iran are deteriorating. Respondents believe all these conflicts could hinder the route’s development.
