Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) had a reading of $4,775 per 40ft for its Shanghai-Rotterdam route, a $800 per container hike representing a 19% increase on the week before, while shippers on the Shanghai-Genoa leg found themselves paying another $1,000 per box after rates jumped 22% week on week, to $5,496 per 40ft.
Meanwhile, Xeneta’s XSI Asia-Europe leg was up 21.5%, to 4,970 per 40ft.
«This represents a relatively high level of success for the new GRIs,» Vespucci Maritime’s Lars Jensen told a JOC Ocean Freight Market Outlook webinar yesterday.
«Expect increasing rates for the next month, until Chinese New Year,» he added. That holiday begins on 29 January and, only a few days after that, is the 1 February launch of the new alliance networks, which Mr Jensen said would occupy most of carriers’ attention. «In February and March, carriers will be completely focused on the optimal phase-in of their networks and trying to maintain their customer market share while they do so,» he said, adding the combination of this and low post-Chinese New Year demand could send spot rates down rapidly once more.
«Post-Chinese New Year I would expect a larger-than-normal seasonal slump in spot rates, and there will be a strong temptation for shippers at that point in their contract negotiations to sign contracts at really low rates. But if a strong peak season follows that, and with the Red Sea crisis quite probably lasting all year, there could well be a repeat of the space constraints we saw this year, and those with very cheap contracts may well find it difficult to acquire space during the peak,» he said.
Given that contract negotiating season is well under way on the Asia-Europe trades, the GRIs will come as relief to carriers, because on the Asia-North America trades, the recent declines in spot rates only steepened this week, with the WCI’s Shanghai-Los Angeles leg down 12% week on week, to $3,719 per 40ft, with Shanghai-New York unchanged, at $5,160 per 40ft.
«I don’t expect this weakening to continue,» Mr Jensen added, referring to the transpacific trade, «Front-loading has already started and, while for now they are depressed, they will strengthen again.»
Transpacific spot rate trends for the remainder of 2024 are thus likely to hinge on the next series of GRIs on the trade, due to be implemented on 15 December — with Hapag-Lloyd, HMM, Cosco and Evergreen applying $3,000 per 40ft; Zim, Yang Ming and CMA CGM adding $2,000 and ONE going for $1,000 per 40ft.
