The Middle East conflict remains the primary driver reshaping global logistics
In Q2 2026, the conflict between the US and Iran escalated into a crisis of global energy and transport security. Although large-scale combat operations were not conducted by either side during the quarter, a comprehensive political agreement was not reached. In July, the unstable phase of negotiated de-escalation gave way to a renewed escalation of the conflict (resumption of attacks, Iran’s statements about closing the Strait of Hormuz, and the US decision to restore the blockade). High uncertainty and the deepening crisis manifested in disruptions and reduced cargo volumes, increased insurance and freight costs, longer delivery times, and an active search for alternative routes.
Freight rate dynamics reflect the strain on global supply chains. The Drewry World Container Index, a composite index of global container shipping, rose for several months and reached $4,639 per FEU by July 9, 2026, marking its highest level since September 2024. At the same time, imbalances across routes are intensifying. Mainline trades from China to the US and Europe saw sharp rate increases driven by an early peak season and demand from AI infrastructure—importers, especially in the US, are bringing in autumn goods and essential electronics early due to risks of rising costs and logistical disruptions. Rates on return empty legs remain largely unchanged, reflecting weak demand. Prices for intra-Asian shipments decreased in the second half of June due to increased tonnage availability, the return of the Taiwanese carrier TVL Marine, and MSC’s expansion of its Lang Co Express service.
The Iran factor intensified pressure on traditional supply management tools, namely premiums and blank sailings. Ahead of the 2026 peak season, carriers traditionally planned to introduce seasonal surcharges and implement general tariff increases. Against the backdrop of the Iranian crisis, the magnitude of these increases grew, with fuel surcharges and geopolitical risk fees being used most intensively. On the Asia—US route, carriers announced rate hikes of approximately $2,000—$3,000 per FEU starting mid-July. For instance, the seasonal surcharge imposed by South Korean carrier HMM on the transpacific route will amount to $3,000 per FEU from July 15.
Despite detours and voyage delays caused by the Iran factor, companies did not cancel their use of blank sailings planned for the peak season. Following massive vessel orders in 2021–2022, many new container ships entered the market, creating a risk of downward pressure on rates. In such situations, carriers actively regulate excess capacity through blank sailings, schedule shifts, and service consolidations. Before the 2026 peak season, operators proactively reduced capacity in April and May (especially on the key commercial Asia—US route) to maintain tariffs amid slowing demand growth, persistent fuel pressure, and geopolitical uncertainty. The Iran factor exacerbated the situation, adding forced reductions to regular blank sailings, which put even greater upward pressure on rates.
Thus, Q2 2026 in global logistics was characterized by an unprecedented combination of seasonal demand, fuel shock, and a geopolitical premium.
Read more: Global Business Monitor
