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China-Europe logistics market
Demand outlook
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In February 2026, business activity in China grew at its strongest pace in five years. The composite PMI rose to 52,1 (+1,8 pp MoM), reaching its highest level since December 2020 [RatingDog / S&P Global]. The key driver was a powerful increase in output and demand. New export orders showed their strongest growth since September 2020. Amid strengthening market demand and the launch of new production lines, business expectations surged to an 11-month high. The increase in business activity and optimistic producer expectations indicate sustained high demand for export shipments from China.
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Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight is recovering after the holidays in China, but growth rates are currently modest. Production activity in Asia is gradually increasing, while economic growth in the Eurozone remains subdued — persistent inflation and weak consumer confidence are restraining import demand.
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In January-February, the volume of China-Europe-China rail container transportation increased by 25% YoYwith volume on the Central Eurasian Corridor growing by 31% over the same period. In February, total shipment volume across all routes increased by 28% YoY, also rising by 1% MoM.
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Against the backdrop of volatility in the maritime and air freight markets, some freight forwarders are noting a shift in demand towards rail. However, major players are more cautious in their assessment of the situation.
Freight rate trends
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The Shanghai-Rotterdam WCI, as of 05.03.2026, fell to $2 052/FEU (-5% MoM, -22% YoY) [Drewry].
UPDATE: As of the evening of March 12, 2026, the latest WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam reading has risen by 19% WoW — up to $2 443/FEU.
The Shanghai-Genoa WCI rose to $2 844/FEU. For the second half of March, carriers have planned rate increases due to a sharp rise in fuel costs and insurance premiums. According to GeekYum, quotations average in the range of $3 000/FEU to $4 000/FEU depending on the carrier. -
Futures traders expect Asia-Northern Europe ocean freight rates to remain in the $2 000-3 000/FEU corridor for the remainder of 2026.
Other trends
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On March 10, 2026, Brent crude oil prices fell sharply below $90/barrel after rising to nearly $120 in the previous session amid signals of a possible end to the conflict with Iran. However, the bunker market continues to price in the previous surge. From February 27 to March 10, the price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Singapore doubled, breaking through the $1 000/ton level [Ship & Bunker]. Major container lines are introducing emergency fuel surcharges starting March 16 [ICIS].
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Kuehne + Nagel warns of congestion at Asian airports due to the closure of airspace over the Middle East [JOC]. Approximately 18% of global air cargo capacity has effectively been removed from the market following airport closures in the region. Against this backdrop, bottlenecks are expected in China and Southeast Asia for shipments to the US and Europe. The situation resembles the pandemic-era supply-demand imbalance and is expected to bring even more pronounced rate increases for air carriers than in the maritime segment.
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Amid air freight disruptions, shippers are beginning to consider road transport as an alternative for urgent cargo [Logistics Manager]. According to Girteka, road delivery on the China — Europe route via Central Asia currently takes approximately 14-18 days. Industry experts note that infrastructure development and simplified border procedures in Central Asia, primarily in Kazakhstan, are making this corridor increasingly competitive for high-value cargo.
Ocean freight: high volatility in the market will most likely translate into rate increses for shippers and a further deterioration of service
Current Situation and Near-Term Outlook: Market volatility is rising amid the conflict in the Middle East.
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Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight is recovering after the holidays in China, but growth rates remain modest. Production activity in Asia is gradually increasing, while economic growth in the Eurozone remains subdued — persistent inflation and weak consumer confidence are restraining import demand.
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Delays persist at key ports, and the operational situation will most likely continue to worsen. As of 07.03.2026, delays amounted to 432 thousand TEU in Northern Europe (33% MoM) and 887 thousand TEU in North Asia (-26% MoM) [Linerlytica]. Additional risks are emerging for Southeast Asian hubs due to service adjustments in connections with the Persian Gulf. Congestion is leading to missed connections and a collapse in reliability: in February, container service punctuality plummeted to 18% (eeSea; Xeneta).
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The Shanghai-Rotterdam WCI, as of 05.03.2026, fell to $2 052/FEU (-5% MoM, -22% YoY) [Drewry]. The Shanghai-Genoa WCI rose to $2 844/FEU. For the second half of March, carriers have planned rate increases due to a sharp rise in fuel costs and insurance premiums. According to GeekYum, quotations for China-Northern Europe average in the range of $3 000/FEU to $4 000/FEU depending on the carrier.
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From February 27 to March 10, the price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Singapore doubled, breaking through the $1 000/ton level [Ship & Bunker].
