The trade relationship between China and the US has been deteriorating, a trend that began during the Trump administration and has continued under Biden. While the EU has been more cautious in its approach, its patience with China’s trade practices is wearing thin, leading to potential further strain in the trade relationship between China and the West.

New informal trading blocs are likely to emerge in South Asia, centred on India or a major ASEAN country such as Indonesia. Russia’s preferred strategy will be to refrain from joining any single «constellation,» maintaining equidistance from the EU, China, and the new Asian hubs