This short-term outlook edition coincides with the unfolding of the Covid-19 crisis, making the exercise exceptionally challenging. Market forecasts are based on market intelligence available at the beginning of April 2020 and reflect the Covid-19 impact to the extent possible, with all the caveats and limitations in view of the rapidly evolving situation. In addition, for the first time market outlooks are presented for EU-27, and assume a frictionless trade between the EU and the UK in 2020.

Consumers, one of the key drivers powering China’s economic rebound, have regained confidence and are spending at levels seen before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.