Global output expanded by 3.3% in 2025, largely due to emerging economies (up 4.4%), particularly in Asia. Strong growth, underpinned by domestic demand, continued in India (up 7.3%) and China (up 5%). Integration into renewed global value chains also supported growth elsewhere in the region — Indonesia (up 5.1%), Vietnam (up 8%), and Malaysia (up 5.2%).
At the start of 2026, key indicators point to an acceleration in global business activity. The global composite PMI rose to 53.3 in February, its highest level since June 2022, while the manufacturing PMI reached a 44‑month high. This improvement was observed not only in Asia but also in the eurozone. The recovery in global trade is further reflected in the container shipping index, which rose to 144.7 points in January 2026, up from 142.1 in December 2025.
The main new risk to the global economy is the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Geopolitical tensions have sharply intensified since late February 2026, most notably with the suspension of transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Around 25% of global oil supplies and approximately 20% of liquefied natural gas supplies pass through this route. The disruption has led to a sharp increase in oil prices (up 30%) and gas prices (up 55%) by mid‑March compared with late February. This has created conditions for an acceleration in global inflation, both through higher energy prices and increased logistical complexity and cost. In this context, central banks may be forced to maintain tight monetary conditions for longer, or even resume raising rates. Oil prices in 2026 could be higher than in 2025, in the range of $75—$85 per barrel. Our estimates suggest this poses a risk of slowing global GDP growth by around 0.3–0.5 percentage points in 2026. Persisting disruptions to supply routes, increased volatility in financial markets, and shifts in investment flows could amplify the negative impact.
The pace of recovery in the eurozone has picked up. The region’s economy grew by 1.5% in 2025, supported mainly by a rise in consumption, driven by wage increases of around 3%, and a 0.7% increase in employment. Employment growth was concentrated in the service sector. At the same time, job cuts in industry have ceased, with industrial output rising by 1.5% in 2025. This improvement was supported by a temporary decline in energy prices in 2025 compared with 2023–2024 levels.
Early in 2026, economic activity in the eurozone continued to strengthen: the manufacturing PMI returned to expansionary territory, reaching 50.8 in February 2026 — its highest level in 44 months. Nevertheless, the recovery remains fragile amid trade‑related risks that constrain export potential.
China’s economy maintained growth of 5% in 2025, largely owing to a recovery in consumer demand — which accounted for more than half of GDP growth — and increased government spending. Government measures, including subsidies for upgrading durable goods and stimulus for services consumption, also contributed. Investment activity (up 3.8% in 2025) was supported by several factors: investment in high‑tech industries, lower interest rates, and the provision of guarantees for small and medium‑sized enterprises. Despite higher trade barriers compared with 2024, exports rose by 6.1%. The composite PMI remained above the neutral 50‑point mark in January 2026 (50.3), indicating that business activity continues to expand.
