In 2025, global trade in goods and services continued to expand and, according to UNCTAD estimates, is expected to reach a record level by the end of the year, exceeding USD 35 trillion. The overall increase in global trade in value terms is estimated at around 7 per cent compared with 2024. The main contribution to growth came from trade in goods, which expanded by approximately USD 1.5 trillion, corresponding to an increase of about 6 per cent, as well as from trade in services, which grew by around USD 750 billion, or roughly 9 per cent. Despite the positive performance for the year as a whole, the pace of global trade growth slowed in the second half of 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter, reflecting weakening global demand and persistent external pressures.
The regional composition of global trade growth in 2025 was characterized by uneven dynamics. East Asia and Africa made the most significant contribution to the expansion of global trade flows, recording higher growth rates of both exports and imports compared with other regions. At the same time, trade growth in several developed economies remained more moderate, with periods of stagnation or declining trade activity observed in some quarters.
In 2025, China maintained its position as one of the largest participants in global trade. According to UNCTAD data, China’s exports continued to grow on a year-on-year basis (+7%), although growth rates in some quarters were lower than in previous periods. China’s imports showed positive quarter-on-quarter dynamics (+4%); however, their year-on-year performance remained subdued compared with exports (—1%), reflecting domestic demand conditions and changes in the structure of external trade. Overall, China continued to play a key role in global supply chains, remaining one of the world’s leading exporters of goods.
The European Union exhibited relatively stable trade dynamics in 2025. EU exports increased at a moderate pace (+5%), while imports recorded a somewhat stronger year-on-year growth (+6%). According to UNCTAD, the EU’s trade performance reflected a combination of domestic demand conditions and external economic factors.
The report notes that global trade dynamics in 2025 were to a large extent driven by price factors. The increase in the value of trade in the first half of the year was largely associated with higher prices, while price pressures eased towards the end of the year. This points to a potential divergence between value-based and volume-based trade trends across different periods of 2025.
UNCTAD emphasizes that, despite the expansion of global trade in 2025, significant risks to its future outlook persist. Key sources of uncertainty include slower global economic growth, rising trade costs, heightened geopolitical tensions and the continued presence of trade restrictions. These factors may weigh on global trade growth prospects in 2026.
The report also highlights that, amid a changing global economic environment, the role of regional trade linkages and intraregional trade is increasing, even as international trade flows between major economic hubs continue to play an important role in global trade. Overall, UNCTAD characterizes 2025 as a period of resilient but slowing global trade growth, accompanied by elevated uncertainty regarding short- and medium-term prospects.
