The report provides a detailed analysis of the current industry situation, including macroeconomic trends, regulatory changes, supply/demand dynamics, and logistics challenges impacting global supply chains.
Key June 2025 Developments
Sharp demand surge on the China-US route due to temporary tariff reductions (US: 145% → 30%, China: 125% → 10% for 90 days). This triggered an «early peak season» as importers rush to replenish inventories before the tariff window closes in August.
Demand & Capacity
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Transpacific (TP) Route:
Sharp capacity increase expected within the next 4 weeks (+16% YTD). Carriers are adding extra loaders, reinstating services, and new players are entering the market. Near-term capacity remains tight due to vessel redeployment to other routes.
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Global Demand:
Container trade growth slowed to +6% in February (after peaking in December 2024). Volatility is expected due to tariff wars.
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Regional Imbalances:
Demand exceeds capacity on most Asia outbound lanes, causing operational challenges. South America’s traditional peak season starts in June.
Infrastructure Challenges
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Port Congestion:
Worsened at key North American ports (especially LA/LB: 38 vessels waiting vs. 29 previously). High-volume Asian ports (Shanghai, Ningbo) remain congested, though Qingdao improved (78 vessels vs. 106). Delays persist in Europe (Antwerp: 30 vessels waiting).
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Schedule Reliability:
Reached 58.7% in April (+1.7 ppt MoM) but excludes Blank Sailings. Deterioration forecasted at Asian ports due to vessel redeployment to TP.
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Equipment Shortages:
Risk of container shortages in Asia due to April/May Blank Sailings limiting empty container repositioning to China.
Rates
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Rate Increases:
TP spot rates surged 27% since early May driven by demand spikes and successful General Rate Increases (GRIs) implemented May 15th. Further increases expected in late June.
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Surcharges:
Carriers are imposing Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) on select routes in June.
Regulatory Risks
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Tariff Uncertainty:
US Court of International Trade’s invalidation of IEEPA tariffs (May 28) was stayed following a government appeal. US administration exploring alternative mechanisms (Sec. 122, 301, 232, 338). Potential EU 50% tariffs postponed to July 9th.
DHL Forecasts
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Operational Challenges: US port bottlenecks (chassis/truck/rail shortages), increased June delays.
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Rate Pressure: To persist due to container shortages during peak season and TP capacity redeployment.
Conclusion
The market is experiencing a «bullwhip effect»: The China-US demand surge has caused cascading issues — from container shortages to rate hikes and port delays. Key risks: Geopolitical instability (tariffs), infrastructure constraints, and capacity imbalances.
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