Against a backdrop of geopolitical fragmentation, slowing global demand, and persistent trade protectionism, China’s foreign trade performance in 2025 underscored the adaptability of the world’s second‑largest economy. Total imports and exports reached a record RMB 45.47 trillion (US$6.36 trillion), marking a 3.8 percent year‑on‑year increase and affirming China’s continued centrality to global trade flows. Export growth remained the primary driver, rising 6.1 percent to RMB 26.99 trillion (US$3.77 trillion), while imports showed tentative recovery, edging up 0.5 percent to RMB 18.48 trillion (US$2.58 trillion).
Beyond the aggregate numbers, the data reflects a deeper shift underway. China is moving decisively away from its traditional role as a low‑cost manufacturing hub toward a trade profile anchored in high‑end manufacturing, green technologies, and strategically diversified markets. Expanding trade ties with ASEAN and Belt and Road partners have reduced exposure to geopolitical friction with developed economies, reinforcing China’s position not only as a global production center, but also as an increasingly sophisticated consumer and innovation market for multinational companies.
Outlook for 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, China’s foreign trade is expected to remain resilient but more constrained, shaped by a combination of slowing global momentum and ongoing structural upgrading at home. Export growth is likely to moderate to around 4 percent, down from 2025 but still outperforming the global average, as market diversification and product upgrading continue to offset external headwinds. The deeper drivers of this resilience lie in China’s highly complete industrial chain and entrenched competitiveness in key manufacturing segments, even as global trade growth slows and protectionist barriers multiply.
The reconfiguration of global supply chains is paradoxically accelerating China’s export upgrade from mid‑ to low‑end consumer goods toward higher‑value intermediate and capital goods. Demand from emerging markets such as ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America will remain a core support, fueled by faster industrialization and continued reliance on Chinese intermediate inputs and equipment. At the same time, global investment in AI computing capacity is expected to sustain strong demand for China’s power equipment and data‑center‑related exports. That said, policymakers face a balancing challenge: guarding against excessive short‑term declines in labor‑intensive exports that could create employment pressures.
By market, 2026 may see a pattern of narrowing drag from the US and easing momentum in non‑US markets, though the latter will remain the primary growth engine. A potential easing of US‑China tariff tensions, combined with expansionary US fiscal and monetary policies, could help stabilize bilateral trade. Meanwhile, exports to ASEAN, Latin America, and the EU should stay firm, though growth may cool modestly due to higher base effects from transshipment trade and tightening regulatory and trade rules in advanced economies. On the import side, China is likely to rely more heavily on domestic stimulus and institutional opening‑up to stabilize demand.
