The report provides a comprehensive analysis of current conditions in the shipping industry, covering macroeconomic trends, regulatory changes, demand and supply dynamics, and logistical challenges affecting global supply chains.
Macroeconomic context and demand forecasts
Global economic growth is showing signs of deceleration: GDP growth forecasts for 2025 have been lowered to 2.2%, and to 2.4% for 2026. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) indicate weak manufacturing performance, particularly in the U.S., where rising production costs are increasing the risk of recession. As a result, analysts from Drewry and Linerlytica have revised their container shipping growth forecasts for 2025 to −1%, signaling stagnation in the sector.
Regulatory changes and U.S. tariff policy
As of April 17, 2025, updated regulations from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) regarding port fees for China-linked vessels have come into force. These fees will be phased in starting October 14, 2025, and will continue increasing through 2028. For vessels operated by Chinese companies, fees will range from $50 to $140 per net registered ton. For vessels built in China, charges will range from $18 to $33 per ton or from $120 to $250 per container, whichever is greater. These measures aim to reduce dependence on Chinese vessels and encourage the use of alternative routes and fleets.
Supply and demand dynamics
Despite general economic deceleration, demand for ocean freight remains stable across most trade lanes, except for the Trans-Pacific route, which has seen an increase in booking cancellations due to pricing disputes. In response, carriers have begun reallocating capacity from Trans-Pacific routes to other lanes, including Asia-Europe, in an effort to optimize fleet utilization.
Port infrastructure and schedule reliability
Port congestion in North America is gradually easing, though remains above pre-pandemic levels. In Asia, conditions are improving, though delays persist in major ports such as Shanghai, Ningbo, and Colombo. In Europe, ports such as Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Algeciras, and Valencia continue to face difficulties in cargo handling, resulting in limited available capacity. Schedule reliability improved to 57.5% in March 2025—the highest level since November 2023—but remains volatile due to ongoing disruptions and blank sailings.
Freight and fuel pricing
Freight rates have stabilized at current levels, though volatility remains high, particularly in the spot market. Long-term rates are more stable. The introduction of new environmental regulations in the Mediterranean Sea, requiring the use of fuel with sulfur content below 0.1%, has led to higher fuel costs and, consequently, rising freight rates.
Conclusion
The DHL report emphasizes that the ocean freight market in 2025 faces numerous challenges, including economic uncertainty, regulatory shifts, and logistical disruptions. Companies engaged in international trade must closely monitor policy changes, adapt to new conditions, and seek to optimize their supply chains to maintain resilience and competitiveness.
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