This short-term outlook edition coincides with the unfolding of the Covid-19 crisis, making the exercise exceptionally challenging. Market forecasts are based on market intelligence available at the beginning of April 2020 and reflect the Covid-19 impact to the extent possible, with all the caveats and limitations in view of the rapidly evolving situation. In addition, for the first time market outlooks are presented for EU-27, and assume a frictionless trade between the EU and the UK in 2020.

Analysis of international trade statistics shows that different groups of the European Union (EU) member countries reacted differently to a ban on imports of certain types of food products (hereinafter referred to as «sanctioned goods») by Russia in August 2014, which also implies a ban on transit traffic.