President Biden’s Middle East envoy, Brett McGurk, was joined by president-elect’s choice, Steve Witkoff — a partnership which the White House described as «highly constructive, very fruitful» — just four days before the ceasefire deal was agreed — although it has yet to be formally signed by the Israeli government.
Meanwhile, there is speculation that the Red Sea and Suez Canal could again be available as a viable option for shipping, given a Houthi pledge to end hostilities there should the war in Gaza end.
But uncertainties are many. Experts have warned against taking the Houthis at their word, pointing out that the apparent efficacy of their Red Sea attacks has given the group considerable leverage over world trade, which they may not easily surrender.
Many eyes have turned to posts on X by Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdul Salam, who said yesterday: «With this battle reaching its conclusion with the declaration of a ceasefire in Gaza, the Palestinian cause was and will remain the first cause for which the nation must assume responsibility, considering the Zionist enemy entity a dangerous entity for everyone, and its continued occupation of Palestine represents a threat to the security and stability of the region.»
But anticipating a peaceful Red Sea, Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, posted on LinkedIn this morning: «...a best case scenario might begin to see a reversal back to a Suez routing during second half of February — and perhaps a few ad-hoc transits prior to that.»
The post appeared to revise his previous prediction that the Red Sea routes would remain a no-go until at least August.
And Michael Yarwood, TT Club MD of loss prevention, told The Loadstar shipping lines would have little to gain from a swift resumption of Red Sea transits.
«If I think back to the Suez Canal blockage, which was six days, things changed back very quickly after that. On the basis that this change has occurred over 15 months... I just wonder how quickly the shipping lines might go back. I don’t get the sense that they would be wanting to go at breakneck speed to return to how things were.»
Mr Yarwood pointed to a consensus among industry colleagues that the response from insurance would not be instantaneous either, adding: «The sense is that it will take a period following [the signing of the agreement] to build reassurance before things change dramatically.»
The ceasefire agreement has yet to be signed by Israel, which would represent a striking u-turn from remarks made by government figures just days ago. One, national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, promised to resign from the cabinet if the agreement were adopted.
Former US State Department official Mike Casey told Al Jazeera today Israel may have timed the deal as a «gift to Trump», being «essentially not that much different than the deal they could have agreed to in May».
And a last-minute tussle arose this morning, with Israel prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu claiming Hamas had «reneged» on specific terms to extract last-minute concessions.
