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The paths of the COVID-19 pandemic and the recovery of the global economy remain impossible to predict. But it is becoming increasingly clear that, disruptive impact on international trade will leave a lasting mark. Companies should take a fresh, holistic view of the markets and trade relationships that are likely to drive growth and secure competitive advantage in the post-COVID-19 world.
New informal trading blocs are likely to emerge in South Asia, centred on India or a major ASEAN country such as Indonesia. Russia’s preferred strategy will be to refrain from joining any single «constellation,» maintaining equidistance from the EU, China, and the new Asian hubs