Shippers negotiating new contracts this year face a major rates dilemma as the maritime industry contemplates a return to using the Suez Canal.
When carriers revert to transiting the canal, the reduction in voyage tonne-miles will begin to expose the overcapacity in the market, pushing a significant downward trend in freight rates, especially on Asia-Europe trades.
Shipping analyst Drewry estimates rerouting round the Cape of Good Hope reduced effective capacity by around 9%, «which has helped carriers once again post some very strong quarterly profits in the past 12 months».
The Red Sea crisis was a new challenge for maritime shipping, which begs the question of whether the maritime shipping market will be able to adapt to new circumstances or whether the unstable situation in the Red Sea will push shippers to switch to rail transport.
Main insights for the first half of March 2025
