At the end of the first half of 2026, in June, the WCI Drewry Index reached $3,939, outperforming the ERAI rate ($3,704 per FEU) for the first time since January 2025. The WCI for the Shanghai—Rotterdam route closely approached the ERAI, reaching $3,579 per FEU by early June. According to ERAI data, this trend continued in July. The peak in ocean freight rates in June and then July was driven by the onset of the peak season for maritime cargo demand, the persistent fuel factor, as well as delays and disruptions. Pressure on available carrying capacity came from a shortage of containers in Chinese ports, as well as operational difficulties at Northern European ports.
In the second half of the year, ocean freight rates are expected to stabilize and even gradually decline as seasonal demand is met, delays and disruptions ease (particularly in Asia), and overall fleet capacity increases. At the same time, the persistence of military-political risks that affect fuel costs, vessel schedules and routes, and consequently available carrying capacity, will remain a restraining factor for price reductions. This points to a likely ‘soft landing’ scenario for the second half of the year.
In the first half of 2026, at least 275,000 TEU passed along the central Eurasian railway route in total, which is 10.7% less than the figure for the same period in 2025 (307,800 TEU). At the same time, however, transit traffic volumes on the China—Europe—China route showed steady growth, increasing by 32.8% (from 138,400 to 183,800 TEU).
The growth in the transit segment was driven by shipping on the China — Europe route. Volumes along this route increased by 39.0%, from 118.7 to 165.0 thousand TEU. At the same time, the figures for the first half of 2026 slightly exceeded those for the same period in 2024. The reverse route (Europe—China) remained at roughly the same level, with a slight decline of 4.5% (from 19.7 to 18.8 thousand TEU). The China—Europe flow thus served as the main driver of central Eurasian rail traffic in the reporting period.
As has been the case, the key commodity categories transported along the central Eurasian railway route remain electrical devices, mechanical equipment, and motor vehicles. In the first half of 2026, the total volume of shipments in these categories amounted to approximately 59.7 thousand TEU, which is 27.7% higher than during the same period in 2025 (46.8 thousand TEU). Compared to 2025, growth was observed in each of these categories: electrical devices increased from 16.3 thousand to 19.0 thousand TEU (+16.1%), mechanical equipment — from 15.2 thousand to 21.4 thousand TEU (+40.8%), and motor vehicles — from 15.2 thousand to 19.3 thousand TEU (+27.1%). However, the combined share of these categories in overall container traffic structure decreased from 33.9% in 2025 to 32.6% in 2026.
Following the leading commodity groups, the category «Furniture and lighting equipment» plays a significant role, its share reached 8.0% in 2026, while shipment volumes increased by 35.8% compared to 2025. The category «Plastics and articles thereof» also demonstrated substantial growth — up 56.9%, with its share reaching 6.9% of the total volume.
For the full year 2026, certain commodity categories showed high growth rates. In particular, shipments of «Textile floor coverings» (+167.3%), «Knitted apparel» (+147.2%), «Footwear» (+104.2%), and «Woven apparel» (+99.3%) increased significantly. The growth in light industry categories is noteworthy and may indicate a recovery in demand or changes in logistics preferences. Volumes in the category «Miscellaneous manufactured articles» more than doubled (+82.8%), as did «Toys and sports equipment» (+52.2%).
The most significant decline in shipment volumes was observed in the «Nickel» category (—70.4%; in absolute terms — from 54 to 16 TEU), but given the extremely small volumes, this decline did not have a substantial impact on overall trends. Declines were also recorded in the categories «Hides and skins» (—36.6%), «Other textile fibers» (—18.9%), and «Other metal articles» (—11.8%).
