When using, citing, or distributing the materials from this report, it is mandatory to reference the ERAI portal and include the webpage address https://index1520.com as the source of information. China-Europe logistics market Demand outlook On February 22, US President Donald Trump raised the universal tariff announced the previous day from 10% to 15% for all foreign trading partners [CNBC]. The decision followed a US Supreme Court ruling that overturned most of his sectoral duties (excluding tariffs on cars, auto components, and semiconductors). The repeal of most previous duties lowers the overall rate for Chinese goods. The chaotic nature of US policy could create a window of opportunity for importers and once again lead to a redistribution of international cargo flows. Increased volatility in logistics markets is possible. In January, export conditions for German industry improved slightly. The HCOB Germany PMI Export Conditions Index rose to 51.2 (+0,3 p. MoM) [S&P Global]. The key driver remains sustained demand from Asia (China, Japan, and India). This trend is likely to be sustainable, which could help reduce the trade imbalance between China and Europe. In January, China-Europe-China rail container volume increased by 22% YoY. Giving a breakdown, growth on the Central Eurasian Corridor reached 25% YoY, while the Middle Corridor also showed positive dynamic — 7% YoY. Compared to December, total container volume rose by 8% MoM. Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight is at a reduced level due to the holidays in China. The market remains highly sensitive to changes in the external environment. Freight rate trends The Shanghai-Rotterdam WCI, as of 19.02.2026, fell to $2 164/FEU (-16% MoM, -19% YoY) [Drewry]. he Shanghai-Genoa WCI dropped to $2 895/FEU. In March, most carriers will attempt to establish a higher price level ahead of Q2 2026 contract negotiations. According to GeekYum, the average spot rate for March starts at $2 700/FEU. However, a significant spread in quotations is observed: from $1 950/FEU (Maersk; ETD 05.03.2026) to >$3 000/FEU (EMC, HMM, ONE, OOCL; various ETD dates throughout the month). Futures traders expect Asia-Northern Europe ocean freight rates to remain in the $1 500-2 200/FEU corridor for the remainder of 2026. Other trends KTZ Express has organized a pilot shipment of Kazakhstani rice to Antwerp via the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) [rail-news.kz]. The cargo was dispatched along the route Kyzylorda—Aktau—Poti—Antwerp. The Poti-Antwerp sea leg is provided by CMA CGM. Previously, the cargo traveled by land via Semiglavy Mar, Brest, and Duisburg. According to the source, the new scheme has reduced transportation costs compared to the «Northern Corridor» while ensuring comparable delivery times (~30 days). According to ERAI data, in January 2026, the total transit time via the Central Eurasian Corridor on major China-Europe routes was approximately 21 days. Kazakhstan is accelerating the modernization of its railway infrastructure to increase transit between China and Europe. In 2026, it plans to complete the construction of two lines totaling 475 km and modernize 2,900 km of track [Xinhua]. This is expected to increase transit volumes by 60% and reduce delivery time from the Chinese border to the Caspian Sea from 84 to 55 hours. Ocean freight: the market is entering a phase of seasonal cooling, with a risk of further deterioration in the supply—demand balance Current Situation and Near-Term Outlook: The seasonal lull has begun. The market remains highly sensitive to changes in the external environment. Demand for Asia-Europe shipments is at a reduced level due to the holidays in China. Significant delays persist in Asian and European ports. According to Flexport, Asian transit hubs are congested due to the accumulation of volumes shipped before the holidays, with terminal utilization exceeding 90%. In Northern Europe, the situation is complicated by adverse weather conditions. In Rotterdam and Hamburg, container yard occupancy is above 85%, and container dwell time reaches 7-10 days. As of 19.02.2026, delays amounted to: 342 thousand TEU in Northern Europe (+7% MoM) and 1.4 million TEU in North Asia (+32% MoM) [Linerlytica]. Significant supply adjustments (~40% of weekly capacity, according to Flexport), disruptions in Northern European ports, and equipment shortages in China are constraining supply volumes, which is preventing spot rates from collapsing. The Shanghai-Rotterdam WCI, as of 19.02.2026, fell to $2 109/FEU (-16% MoM, -19% YoY) [Drewry]. The Shanghai-Genoa WCI dropped to $2 895/FEU. In March, most carriers will attempt to establish a higher price level ahead of Q2 2026 contract negotiations. According to GeekYum, the average spot rate for March starts at $2 700/FEU. However, a significant spread in quotations is observed: from $1 950/FEU (Maersk; ETD 05.03.2026) to >$3 000/FEU (EMC, HMM, ONE, OOCL; various ETD dates throughout the month). Medium- and Long-Term Outlook: The overall trend continues to point towards a growing supply-demand imbalance and intensifying competition. According to forecasts (Slide 7), in 2026, spot rates could decline by up to 25%, and contract rates by 10%. China-EAEU logistics market Import and export trends In February 13, 2026, the Bank of Russia reduced its key rate to 15.5% per annum against the backdrop of a slowdown in sustainable inflation to 4–5% and the economy’s return to balanced growth. The decision was made taking into account the temporary acceleration of prices in January due to one-off factors (the VAT and excise duty increase, and tariff indexation), which did not alter underlying inflation indicators. Moderate easing of monetary conditions will help stabilize consumer demand…
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