When using, citing, or distributing the materials from this report, it is mandatory to reference the ERAI portal and include the webpage address https://index1520.com as the source of information. China-Europe logistics market Demand outlook In July, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0 (+0,6 pp MoM) [S&P Global]. The increase was driven by accelerating output (the index reached 53.0 — the highest since March 2022), while companies maintained purchasing activity at the previous level, and a weakening of supply chain disruptions allowed for an increase in raw material inventories for the first time in three and a half years. Input and output price inflation eased but remains high. Employment in manufacturing continues to decline, though business expectations improved slightly. The recovery in industrial demand in Europe is supporting imports of components and equipment, including from China. At the same time, China’s economy slowed to 4.3% YoY in Q2 2026 (a 3-year low), falling below the official target range of 4.5–5% [Reuters]. Against the backdrop of weak domestic demand (retail sales in June grew by only 1%) and falling investment, exports are becoming the key driver, allowing China’s economic growth to remain within its targets. Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight remains at a high level, but the structure of cargo flows is changing. The Asia-Northern Europe trade lane is seeing a decline in bookings, while routes to Southern European and Mediterranean ports are showing positive dynamics [Flexport]. Freight rate trends The average cost of China-Europe rail freight in August is ~$10 000/FEU (COC). Rates on most routes decreased slightly compared to July (-$200), with the exception of shipments from Xi’an, where prices remained unchanged. The decline in rail freight rates on certain routes is offset by higher container leasing costs (average around $1 450; over recent weeks, leasing rates to key hubs have increased by ~$50). The main reason is the lengthening of the empty equipment turnaround cycle due to congestion in European ports and the persistent imbalance in flows. WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of July 23, 2026, stood at $4 824/FEU (10% MoM, 47% YoY) [Drewry]. WCI Shanghai-Genoa fell to $5 988/FEU. Ocean freight rates are most likely to continue their gradual decline in the coming weeks, driven by the fading of the seasonal impulse and simultaneous capacity growth. Carriers are maintaining price discipline and sustaining rates amid renewed geopolitical tensions, including through blank sailings. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates on the China-Northern Europe route for the first half of August are ~$5 400/FEU. The average transit time is 42 days, with a minimum of 36 days. Futures traders expect ocean freight rates to return to early 2026 levels, reaching approximately $2 150/FEU by the end of October. Other trends On the afternoon of July 28, 2026, Brent futures fell to approximately $86.5/barrel amid hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict. At the same time, risks to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz persist [Trading Economics]. The cost of VLSFO in Singapore rose to ~$840/ton (up more than 20% since the beginning of the month) [Ship&Bunker]. The situation on rail routes through Poland and Germany remains challenging due to technical failures, terminal congestion, and ongoing maintenance work. Due to abnormally high temperatures, transit times have increased by 3–4 days, with no improvements expected in the coming weeks. Sea Legend is launching a seasonal container service, the China-Europe Arctic Express (CAX), via the Northern Sea Route from August 1 to October 3, 2026 [Xinde; JOC]. A total of 8 voyages will be operated using vessels with capacities ranging from 1 384 to 4 890 TEU. The transit time from Ningbo to Felixstowe is stated at 20 days, with subsequent calls at a number of Northern European ports (Le Havre, Antwerp, Rotterdam, Wilhelmshaven, Hamburg, Gothenburg, Aarhus, Gdynia, Riga, Tallinn). The service is focused on high-margin cargo: electric vehicles, lithium batteries, solar panels, equipment, and e-commerce goods. The project is supported by the authorities of Zhejiang Province, China’s Ministry of Transport, and other stakeholders. OCEAN FREIGHT: THE MARKET IS ENTERING A COOLING PHASE Current situation and near-term outlook: weakening demand and declining rates for shipments to European ports. Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight remains at a high level, but the structure of cargo flows is changing. The Asia-Northern Europe trade lane is seeing a decline in bookings, while routes to Southern European and Mediterranean ports are showing positive dynamics [Flexport]. The operational situation in Asian and European ports remains tense. China is still dealing with the aftermath of Typhoon Bavi, while Europe faces structural constraints and seasonal factors. As of July 26, 2026, delays in Northern Europe amounted to 0.42 million TEU (-13% WoW, −21% MoM), while in North Asia they stood at 2.28 million TEU (+40% WoW, +7% MoM) [Linerlytica]. WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of July 23, 2026, stood at $4 824/FEU (10% MoM, 47% YoY) [Drewry]. WCI Shanghai-Genoa fell to $5 988/FEU. Ocean freight rates are most likely to continue their gradual decline in the coming weeks, driven by the fading of the seasonal impulse and simultaneous capacity growth. Carriers are maintaining price discipline and sustaining rates amid renewed geopolitical tensions, including through blank sailings. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates on the China-Northern Europe route for the first half of August are ~$5 400/FEU. The average transit time is 42 days, with a minimum of 36 days. ➢ Against the backdrop of renewed hostilities in the Strait…
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