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COVID-19 will likely affect trade more profoundly than any other recent crisis. The extent of the disruption will vary by commodity, trade lane, and mode of transport, and it will be steered by local differences in the crisis’s severity
New informal trading blocs are likely to emerge in South Asia, centred on India or a major ASEAN country such as Indonesia. Russia’s preferred strategy will be to refrain from joining any single «constellation,» maintaining equidistance from the EU, China, and the new Asian hubs