The world economy is entering 2025 amid numerous risks. As noted by experts from the Roscongress Foundation in a new research paper, Key Events of 2025: Geoeconomics. Forecasts. Major Risks, it will grow by around 2.5%. At the same time, the two largest economies, the US and China, will experience a slowdown. According to the authors, the key trend of 2025 will be further fragmentation of the global economy.
International trade will increasingly become an arena of geopolitical struggle and the world will face its consequences: leading central banks will reduce key interest rates to stimulate the growth of economies.
According to the analysts, even if 2025 does not bring new major military conflicts, geopolitical tensions will put pressure on the global economy. Escalation of regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East, will pose serious risks to commodity markets and international logistics, thus increasing inflationary pressure.
In addition, the oil market is also facing a new price war. The cost of oil in 2025 will be in the range of USD 65 to USD 85 per barrel. If large-scale trade wars occur, the price will fall closer to USD 60, and a sharp escalation of the conflict in the Middle East may cause short-term movements up to the level of USD 100 a barrel. The most significant factors for the market will be weakening demand for oil in developed countries and the likelihood of Saudi Arabia’s return to a price war with US shale.
At the same time, the development of the digital economy will require an increasing amount of electricity for data centres, artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency mining. According to forecasts by Foundation analysts, the natural gas industry will receive a boost from the growing demand for this major energy demand, and the next two to five years will be the era of natural gas.
In terms of trends in the Russian economy, the coming year will not be easy. As the experience of the first three years of anti-Russian sanctions, the most far-reaching sanctions in the history of the world’s economy, shows, instead of a widely expected decline, the Russian economy almost immediately went into a mode of steady growth. This even resulted in mobilizing trends in the economy and in the social sphere. The country’s economic growth is expected to reach 0.5-1.5% in 2025. Sanctions pressure will nevertheless limit the growth of exports and imports, complicating logistics and increasing transaction costs. There may be a slowdown in the construction sector and manufacturing industries, with notable growth in the military-industrial complex.
The stock market will also remain under pressure, while the share market is expected to decline. The Roscongress Foundation experts note that the Central Bank of Russia’s high rates will be maintained throughout the coming year and part of 2026.
The full text of the analytical review is available on the website of the Roscongress Foundation and on the Roscongress Foundation’s Yandex Zen channel (in Russian).
