Industry is supported by investment in the energy sector, transport and digital infrastructure. In the United States, domestic demand and investment remain strong; signs of stabilization have emerged in the euro area, while China is sustaining growth through exports and high-tech industries. Energy markets remain the main source of uncertainty: restrictions on supplies from the Persian Gulf could amplify the impact of the energy shock.
For the countries in the EDB operational region, the changes in the external environment have mixed effects. High energy prices support exports from Russia and Kazakhstan, while global demand for fertilizers supports the Belarusian economy. At the same time, energy-importing countries face higher import and logistics costs. The resilience of the global economy reduces the risks of weaker external demand, but high energy prices are slowing the decline in inflation and the easing of monetary conditions.
The economies of the region remain resilient. Aggregate GDP grew by 1.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, while the Central Asian economy grew by 6%. The main drivers remain consumer demand, investment and infrastructure projects.
Armenia’s GDP increased by 6.0% year-on-year. Growth was driven by services, construction and mining; consumer spending increased by 5.7% and investment by 7.9%. The EDB forecasts GDP growth of 6.0% for 2026 as a whole.
Belarusian GDP grew by 2.1% year-on-year in January—July. Growth accelerated to 5.4% in July. Agriculture and industry made the main contribution. In the absence of new shocks, economic growth may exceed 2% in 2026.
Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 4.1% year-on-year in January—July. The non-resource sector expanded by 5.4%, partly offsetting an 8.9% decline in oil production. Construction, manufacturing, transport and trade recorded the fastest growth. Fixed capital investment increased by 7.7%.
Kyrgyzstan’s GDP increased by 11.1% year-on-year. Growth is supported by consumer demand, real wages and lending. Investment increased by 58.8%, stimulating industry, transport and construction. The EDB expects the country to maintain high growth rates.
Russia’s GDP grew by 0.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year. In the second quarter, growth reached 1.3% after a 0.2% decline in the first quarter. Consumer demand and government spending are providing support. Investment fell by 6.6% year-on-year in the second quarter amid persistently high real interest rates.
Tajikistan’s GDP increased by 8.2% year-on-year. Exports grew by 65.4%, while investment increased by 18.4%. The EDB forecasts economic growth of 8.3% for the year as a whole.
Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 8.5% year-on-year. Services, industry and construction made the main contribution. Investment increased by 17.5%, while foreign direct investment rose by 32.5%. The EDB expects economic growth of around 8%.
Inflation in the region remains elevated at 6.4% in mid-2026, compared with 6.5% at the end of 2025. In Belarus, inflation declined to 4.3%, while in Uzbekistan it continues to moderate. In Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, inflation accelerated due to higher global energy and food prices. In Kazakhstan, inflation declined to 9.8% in August from 12.3% at the end of 2025.
Central banks are maintaining restrictive monetary conditions. Policy rates stand at 6.5% in Armenia, 7.0% in Tajikistan, 9.25% in Belarus, 12% in Kyrgyzstan, 14% in Uzbekistan and Russia, and 16.25% in Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan: focus on a further upgrade of the sovereign rating. EDB analysts point to moderate government debt, substantial external assets and sustained economic growth as factors supporting a potential further upgrade. The recent upgrade by S&P Global Ratings to «BBB» with a stable outlook confirms this potential.
