The value of global trade increased substantially during 2025, reaching $35 trillion — an increase of $2.5 trillion, or almost 7.5 per cent, compared to 2024. Goods accounted for about $1.8 trillion of that rise (7 per cent growth), while services contributed roughly $700 billion (8 per cent growth). Trade growth was supported by developing economies in East Asia and Africa and by strong South—South trade.
Trade trends in China and the EU
In the fourth quarter of 2025, China’s goods imports contracted by 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter while remaining unchanged compared to the same quarter of the previous year (0 per cent). China’s goods exports rose by 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter and by 5 per cent year-on-year. In the European Union, goods imports increased by 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter and by 7 per cent year-on-year; goods exports were flat in quarterly terms (0 per cent), but grew by 7 per cent compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.
In services trade, both China’s imports and exports rose by 4 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter; year-on-year, services imports increased by 3 per cent and services exports grew by 13 per cent. In the European Union, services imports fell by 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter, but expanded by 10 per cent compared to the fourth quarter of 2024; services exports recorded a 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase and an 8 per cent year-on-year rise.
Regional trade trends
Goods trade growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 was fairly balanced between developed and developing economies, although imports outside East Asia were more subdued. South—South trade recorded above-average growth during the quarter and remained well above trend over the past 12 months, expanding by 9 per cent over the year — driven largely by the strong performance of East Asian economies.
Global imbalances in goods trade
China’s goods trade surplus, which had narrowed in the third quarter, expanded again in the fourth quarter. The United States trade deficit with China and the European Union continued to narrow. At the same time, China’s trade surplus with the European Union expanded.
Outlook
While trade growth remained solid in the first quarter of 2026, global trade is expected to slow for the remainder of the year. The conflict in the Middle East and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are likely to exacerbate inflationary pressures on the global economy. Rising energy costs, combined with higher trade costs from tariffs, regulatory changes and the erosion of trade rules, further dampen prospects.
Global demand for goods related to AI and in some consumer-driven markets — such as digital technologies and green industries — remains very strong and may provide support to global trade; however, these factors are unlikely to offset current geoeconomic challenges and mounting trade frictions.
On the positive side, trade sentiment in many developing regions remains broadly supportive, sustaining commitments to openness and investment in cross-border commerce. Nevertheless, the outlook for the incoming quarters points to slower global trade growth, with risks skewed to the downside compared with the robust performance observed in 2025.
