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China-Europe logistics market
Demand outlook
- China is accelerating fiscal stimulus for 2026, allocating 295 billion yuan ($51 billion) in advance for infrastructure, logistics («logistics cost reduction»), and strategic projects, as well as expanding consumer subsidy programs [Bloomberg]. The measure aims to support domestic demand and investment activity amid weakness in the real estate sector and external risks.
- In December, export conditions for German industry improved at the slowest pace in five months. The HCOB Germany PMI Export Conditions Index fell to 50.9, while new export orders accelerated their decline to 45.3 — the sharpest drop in a year [S&P Global]. Weak demand is observed from European and North American countries. The Asian market is more resilient, but demand from China remains subdued. This signals a weakening of Europe’s export momentum overall and limited potential for trade recovery with China in the short term, except for certain niches (AI infrastructure, data centers).
- In January-December, the volume of China-Europe-China rail container transportation decreased by 18% YoY, while the volume on the Middle Corridor increased by 14% over the year. In December, the total shipment volume across all routes grew by 8% YoY but declined by 10% MoM. Seasonal delays in the Caspian Sea limit the corridor’s potential for cargo flow growth.
- Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight remains at a high level. One of the drivers is increased shipments ahead of the Chinese New Year (17.02.2026-03.06.2026). According to Flexport, shippers are forced to move bookings to earlier dates, ensuring high utilization of all major services.
Freight rate trends
- Average cost of China-Europe rail freight via the Central Eurasian Corridor in January: ~$6 000/FEU (SOC). Rates vary by origin from ~$5 350/FEU (Chengdu) to ~$6 500/FEU (Shenzhen). Container leasing costs are approximately $1 000.
- The Shanghai-Rotterdam WCI, as of 08.01.2025, has increased to $2 840/FEU (27% Mom, −35% YoY) [Drewry]. The Shanghai-Genoa WCI has jumped to $3 885/FEU. Spot rates are most likely to continue rising amid a supply-demand imbalance. Carriers have announced an additional round of rate increases for the second half of the month. According to GeekYum, the average spot rate from major carriers for the second half of January is $2 700-3 200/FEU. Similar quote levels are observed for February.
- Participants in Asia-Northern Europe futures trading expect a decline after the first quarter, with rates in the $1 500-2 000/FEU corridor for most of 2026. Xeneta forecasts a drop in rates to 4Q2023 levels (<$1 500/FEU) even in the case of a partial restoration of Red Sea transit.
Other trends
- The State Taxation Administration of the People’s Republic of China has announced a tightening of the export VAT rebate policy. Effective April 1, 2026, the VAT rebate for the export of photovoltaic and other products (249 HS codes, including commodity items 2841, 3824, 8541) will be abolished. For storage batteries and their parts, the rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% until the end of 2026, with full abolition effective January 1, 2027.
Ocean freight: short-term market uptick amid persistent medium- and long-term risks
Current Situation and Near-Term Outlook: Positive momentum continues.
- Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight remains at a high level. One of the drivers is increased shipments ahead of the Chinese New Year (17.02.2026-03.06.2026). According to Flexport, shippers are forced to move bookings to earlier dates, ensuring high utilization of all major services.
- Significant disruptions persist in Asian and European ports. The main reasons are a surge in cargo flow, as well as adverse weather conditions and issues with container handling and evacuation from European terminals (including via railway services). Snow, ice, and strong winds are particularly hindering operations in the ports of Hamburg, Antwerp, and Rotterdam [JOC]. As of 10.01.2026, port delays amounted to: 415 thousand TEU in Northern Europe (4% MoM) and 1.1 million TEU in North Asia (-1% MoM) [Linerlytica].
- The Shanghai-Rotterdam WCI, as of 08.01.2025, has increased to $2 840/FEU (27% MoM, −35% YoY) [Drewry]. The Shanghai-Genoa WCI has jumped to $3 885/FEU. Spot rates are most likely to continue rising amid a supply-demand imbalance. Carriers have announced an additional round of rate increases for the second half of the month. According to GeekYum, the average spot rate from major carriers for the second half of January is $2 700-3 200/FEU. Similar quote levels are observed for February.
- Effective January 1, with the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) transitioning to a new phase, carriers are introducing additional surcharges. For example, has set a surcharge of $73/TEU.
Medium- and Long-Term Outlook: The overall trend continues to point towards a growing supply-demand imbalance and intensifying competition.
- The expected decline in rates in 2026-2027 may be accompanied by a further deterioration in service quality [JOC]. Sea delivery is becoming less reliable in terms of meeting deadlines. Key factors include chronic port congestion (especially in Northern Europe), increasing vessel sizes against limited terminal capacities, and increasingly aggressive capacity management by carriers (blank sailings, slow steaming, etc.). China-EAEU logistics market
Import and export trends
- By the end of 2025, economic activity in Russia had slowed to stagnation: GDP growth in November is estimated at a minimal 0,1 YoY, and production volume in basic industries declined for the first time since February 2023. For most of the year, private consumption was the growth driver, but by December its momentum began to fade. The GDP structure shows a narrowing of growth sources to final consumption amid a contraction in gross capital formation and net exports, while the share of gross profit in the economy has declined noticeably. These factors indicate an exhaustion of the impulse from consumer demand and a transition of the economy into a stabilization phase after a period of accelerated growth [Kommersant]. The decline in economic and consumer activity creates a restraining environment for growth in import supplies from China.
- According to a forecast by Autostat experts published by Interfax, the base scenario for the new passenger car market in 2026 assumes zero growth—maintaining sales volume at the level of 1.33 million units. The optimistic scenario allows for 10% growth (to 1.46 million units), the pessimistic one — a 10% decline (to 1.2 million). The market will be influenced by the persistently high key rate, tighter auto lending, the VAT increase to 22%, and changes to the recycling fee rules.
- In 2025, 1.33 million new passenger cars were sold in Russia, which is 15,6 less than in 2024. The volume of the used car market was 6.13 million units [AUTOSTAT].
- Import rates in the China-Moscow multimodal corridor continue a gradual upward trend. The average transportation cost via Far Eastern ports has increased by $100/СФЭ over the past month and now stands at ~$5 500/FEU (SOC). Rates for direct rail transportation have also increased, and at a higher pace — a rise of $400 to ~$5 600/FEU (COC).
- The PBC Container Index at the end of December 2025 rose to 6 365 $/FEU (+7% MoM). The increase is due to moderate rate hikes on all routes from Shanghai to Moscow. Rates for the Vladivostok—Moscow rail leg and direct container trains from China increased by 5-10% MoM due to Russian Railways tariff indexation and seasonal import growth.
Other trends
- In 2025, Russian Railways transported 7 million 560.4 thousand TEU (loaded and empty) across all traffic types, a 4,1% YoY decrease [RZD]. The December transportation volume was 649.1 thousand TEU (+2% MoM, −5% YoY). Export transportation is the only growing segment for 2025, with a volume of 1 million 782.3 thousand TEU (+8,5% YoY).
