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China-Europe logistics market
Demand outlook
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In June, China’s manufacturing industry continued its steady growth: the manufacturing PMI stood at 51.7 (-0,1 pp MoM) [RatingDog / S&P Global]. The index has remained above the 50-point mark for 7 consecutive months. New orders have been growing for the 13th consecutive month, but export orders declined slightly again. Output volumes and prices have been rising for the 7th and 6th month respectively. Business expectations remain positive but weakened to a year-to-date low. Persistent weakness in export orders could put pressure on China-Europe shipping volumes in the future.
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As of July 1, the European Union introduced a new levy for parcels valued at less than €150. A fee of €3 will be applied per commodity code listed on the invoice, regardless of the quantity of goods falling under that code. The new rules increase the cost of direct delivery of online orders from outside the EU and could encourage marketplaces to pre-ship some goods in bulk to European warehouses. This could, in turn, support demand for rail container transportation.
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Based on preliminary results for January-June, the volume of China-Europe-China rail container transportation increased by 33% YoY. The Central Eurasian Corridor accounted for the highest relative and absolute growth (33% YoY). On a monthly basis, a 4% MoM increase was recorded on the Central Eurasian Corridor, while the Middle Corridor saw a −31% MoM decline.
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Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight remains at a high level. However, a weakening of the seasonal impulse is possible in the near term. According to expert estimates, a decline in export activity may occur in the second half of July to early August [Drewry, JOC].
Freight rate trends
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The average cost of China-Europe rail freight in July is ~$10 100/FEU (COC). On most routes, rates remained at June levels, indicating that the market has entered a phase of stabilization. On certain routes, a decline in rail freight rates is offset by higher container leasing costs (average around ~$1 400). Over recent weeks, leasing rates have increased by $50–150 depending on the route. The main driver is the lengthening of the empty equipment turnaround cycle due to congestion in European ports and the imbalance in container flows.
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WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of July 10, 2026, stood at $4 933/FEU (31% MoM, 46% YoY) [Drewry].
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UPDATE: As of the evening of July 17, 2026, the latest WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam reading has declined by 1% WoW — down to $4 873/FEU.
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WCI Shanghai-Genoa rose to $6 463/FEU. Ocean freight rates are most likely to hold at elevated levels in the near term. Carriers are attempting to sustain rates through FAK tariff increases — CMA CGM will introduce rates of $7 000/FEU (Asia-Northern Europe) and $7 900–8 500/FEU (Asia-Mediterranean) effective July 15. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates on the China-Northern Europe route for the second half of July are approximately $5 400/FEU (-$600 from the first half of the month). The average transit time is 43 days, with a minimum of 33 days.
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Futures traders expect ocean freight rates to return to early 2026 levels, reaching approximately $2 200/FEU by the end of September.
Other trends
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On the morning of July 15, 2026, Brent futures rose above $85/barrel amid a new round of conflict between the US and Iran and the restoration of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [Trading Economics]. The cost of VLSFO in Singapore rose to ~$750/ton (+44% since the start of the Middle East conflict) [Ship&Bunker].
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According to transport market participants, from July 31, 2026, the installation of electronic GPS seals may be required for the transit of certain categories of goods through Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus. The cost of installing one seal is estimated at ~$500.
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The construction of the Bakhty—Ayagoz railway line has been placed under special control by the leadership of KTZ [rail-news.kz]. Approximately 20 million cubic meters of earthworks have been completed (51% of the design volume). The completion of the earthwork construction is planned for October 2026. This year, the initial plan was to lay 50 km of railway track, but following a directive from KTZ’s management, the volume has been increased to 70 km. The completion date for the line is December 31, 2027.
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Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd (Gemini Cooperation) have announced the return of the joint AE15 service to the Suez Canal route. The vessel Majestic Maersk (19,076 TEU) departed from China to Europe on June 22. Gemini’s decision is targeted and may be revised if the situation changes.
