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China-Europe logistics market

Demand outlook

• China’s economic growth slowed in August. Retail sales increased by 3,4% YoY, while industrial production grew by 5,2%, with both indicators falling below expectations [CNBC]. Weak domestic demand continues to constrain imports, exacerbating the trade imbalance with Europe. Deflation remains an additional pressure factor: in August, the CPI decreased by 0,4% YoY, and the PPI has remained negative for the third consecutive year. China’s current industrial and export growth is driven by high-tech sectors. For instance, in January-August, exports of electrical and machinery products rose by 9,2% accounting for 60.2% of the total volume [CGTN].
• Weakening industrial dynamics in the Eurozone in September, as indicated by a drop in the manufacturing PMI to 49.5 and a slowdown in output growth [S&P Global], are fostering cautious expectations regarding trade flows. A significant pressure factor remains the demand for export orders, which has been declining for 31 consecutive months. A similar trend is observed in manufacturing procurement activity, which has been contracting for the 39th consecutive month. Moreover, in September, the rate of decline for these indicators accelerated to its fastest pace in six months.
• In January-August, the volume of China—Europe—China rail container transportation decreased by 22% YoY. In August, the total shipment volume across all competitive routes fell by 23% YoY and by 4% MoM.
• Demand for sea freight on the Asia—Europe route remains weak. European importers are maintaining a cautious approach to procurement amid high inflation and excessive warehouse inventories [Flexport]. No significant changes are expected until after China’s Golden Week (October 1–8). 

Freight rate trends

• The Shanghai-Rotterdam WCI fell by 11% last week to $1 910/FEU (-36% MoM, −59% YoY) [Drewry]. Freight rates have returned to the lows last observed in late 2023. According to GeekYum, for the end of September — first half of October, most carriers are quoting rates in the range of $1 400-1 700/FEU.
  

UPDATE: As of the evening of September 25, 2025, the latest WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam reading has declined by 9% WoW — down to $1 735/FEU.

• Futures quotes indicate a further decline in freight rates in the near term, but with potential for growth by year-end. The forward curve suggests a decrease in Asia-Europe rates from current levels to around $1 400/FEU by the end of October, followed by a rise to approximately $2 100/FEU by the end of the year. 
  

Other trends

• Chinese carrier Sea Legend Shipping* has launched the first regular container line to Europe via the Northern Sea Route [SCMP]. The route includes the ports of Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Felixstowe, Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Gdańsk. The transit time from Ningbo to the UK (Felixstowe) offers a transit time of 18 days (for comparison: transit time via the Ningbo—Wilhelmshaven line through the Suez Canal, launched earlier this year, is 26 days). The vessel will arrive at the final destination, Gdańsk, on October 16. The Istanbul Bridge vessel with a capacity of 4 890 TEU is deployed on the route. The maiden voyage was fully booked.
  

Ocean freight: intensifying downward trend

• Current Situation and Near-Term Outlook: Rates Continue to Decline Amid Falling Demand and Persistent Market Imbalance.
  
• Demand for Asia—Europe sea freight remains weak. European importers are maintaining a cautious procurement approach due to high inflation and excessive warehouse inventories [Flexport]. No significant changes are expected until after China’s Golden Week (October 1–8).
• Despite an increase in blank sailings in late September — early October, the scale of cancellations is lower than in previous years, and overall capacity remains excessive. According to DHL Global Forwarding’s expectations, the current market balance will persist until December. Carriers will likely attempt to reduce capacity again, but given ongoing competition, these measures are highly probable to prove ineffective, as before.
• The Shanghai—Rotterdam WCI fell by 11% last week to $1 910/FEU (-36% YoY, −59% MoM) [Drewry]. Freight rates have returned to the lows last seen in late 2023. According to GeekYum, for the period from late September to the first half of October, most carriers are quoting rates in the range of $1 400-1 700/FEU.

UPDATE: As of the evening of September 25, 2025, the latest WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam reading has declined by 9% WoW — down to $1 735/FEU.