Market Developments
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Year-over-year volume growth in 2024 after declines in 2023.
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Increased retail inventories in the US.
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China’s exports surpass forecast amid anticipated US tariffs).
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Stable idle fleet, more vessels in repair yards.
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Crisis in the Red Sea continues as Gaza conflict hopes fade with increased strikes against targets in Gaza and Lebanon.
Demand
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Global container market continued to recover through the entire Q3 and further recovering.
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Manufacturing sector recorded only marginal rise in output in October after production fell in September.
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IMF projects world trade growth for a strong recovery at 3.1% for the full year 2024, with the growth figures also projected to trend up for 2025 except for emerging markets.
Regional Market Development — Major Trades
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In 2024, Transatlantic carriers have reduced capacity due to closed loops and the replacement of large ships with smaller units.
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Outbound Asia rates remain volatile as demand remains strong with the End of Year and early pre-CNY rush and Chinese export tax policy amendments.
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Adverse weather conditions contributing to vessel delays and equipment imbalances.
Freight Rates
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Rates remain much higher than same time last year (SCFI YoY +255% to Euro,+245% intra Asia, +147% to USWC, +128% to Oceania, +96% to S. America).
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Despite the rush to bring forward US imports due to potential new tariffs), Transpacific freight rates have shown slight decreases.
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Several carriers announced new rates starting Dec 1st in anticipation of pre-CNY rush.
Demand Outlook
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China’s exports exceed forecasts as factories anticipate US tariffs.
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Underlying inflation trends remain favorable, with sub- zero core goods inflation and decreasing services inflation in the G5 economies.
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Demand remains healthy at least until Lunar New Year driven by early Lunar New Year and potential implementation of new US tariffs.
Capacity Outlook
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Disruptions on services expected as Alliances are shifting to their new set up mainly on East-West trades.
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Idle fleet of containerships reached an all-time low of less than 1% in 2024. Larger ships of 12,500+ have shown almost no idling.
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Annual dry container production could reach 7.3 million TEU, surpassing previous years with a 6.5% YoY growth.
Regulations/News
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Share that carrier need to surrender for their emissions under EU Emission Trading System increasing to 70% from January. Additional ETS surcharges expected in 2025.
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Chinese export tax rebate policy lowered on certain commodities as of Dec 1st
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Potential policy shifts in the US create mid-term uncertainty. China, Mexico and Canada could be particularly impacted by higher tariffs.
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ILA USMX negotiations reach stalemate. Deadline is Jan 15th.
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