With climate-driven disruption and larger-vessel calls adding to schedule delays, according to analysts
Sea-Intelligence noted in its recent report that the number and length of delays was increasingly absorbing capacity that would otherwise be available to shippers.
The consultancy said the pre-pandemic baseline between 2011 and 2019 was 2.2% of global capacity absorbed by delays, a level that was «relatively stable» and therefore had limited impact on the supply-demand balance.
By contrast, excess capacity absorption is now 2.8 percentage points above that baseline — in June it reached 5%, according to Sea-Intelligence.
«We are therefore in a situation where the global market is „missing“ 1.7m teu of vessel capacity, due to continuing delays,» it said.
That 1.7m teu would itself represent a fleet larger than Evergreen’s, equating to roughly the world’s eighth-largest carrier fleet. .
And Alphaliner said: «Congestion is and will remain a growing problem for the liner sector,. Climate change resulting in extreme weather with typhoons, heavy rainfall, but also periods of excessive drought, is increasingly playing havoc with liner schedules.»
But the consultancy also highlighted the growing impact of larger-vessel calls on port infrastructure. Terminal operators have reported increasing pressure as ‘megamax’ ships bring more volumes into ports.
It highlighted AIS data to illustrate resulting berth times: At Hamburg in July, Evergreen vessels spent between 137 and 187 hours — 5.7 to 7.8 days — at berth; HMM’s large ships spent 89 to 103 hours; ONE vessels were alongside for 98 to 111 hours; and Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk recorded substantially shorter stays, of 37 to 55 hours and 52 to 63 hours, respectively.
The scale of individual calls varies sharply between carrier networks, Alphaliner’s analysis of the Far East-North Europe trade found.
MSC’s Swan service, using ships averaging 15,000 teu and making six European discharge calls, has a theoretical average of 2,500 teu per port. At the other extreme, Evergreen’s CEM service, with vessels averaging 23,490 teu and only three westbound European calls, could generate 7,830 teu per port.
Premier Alliance services have potential average volumes of 6,050 teu per port, while Gemini’s four loops average about 4,700 teu. Ocean Alliance loops average 5,440 teu, while MSC’s independent network averages 2,770 teu per port, because its 15,140 teu vessels make five or six European calls.
Alphaliner stressed that these were theoretical assumptions of volumes, due to information on the exact call sizes being «commercially sensitive», but said they demonstrated how network design and vessel size can concentrate large amounts of cargo at individual ports — adding to the congestion challenge facing the liner industry.
