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China-Europe logistics market
Demand outlook
- In July, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 (+0,5 pp MoM), reaching a 3-month high [S&P Global]. Output accelerated to 52.9, but new order growth remained weak, and export demand contracted slightly once again. The increase in production was largely driven by the processing of backlogs, while companies continued to reduce purchasing, inventories, and employment. The weak inflow of new orders points to continued risks for the sustainability of industrial demand. Record-low water levels in the Rhine are creating risks for logistics connectivity and industrial supply [JOC].
- In July, China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 (-0,8 pp MoM), yet remained in expansion territory for the 8th consecutive month [RatingDog, S&P Global]. New orders have been increasing for 14 straight months, and export orders returned to growth for the first time in three months. Output also continued to expand, although the pace slowed to a 4-month low. At the same time, raw material inventory accumulation led to the first decline in purchasing activity since November 2025. Sustained production growth and recovering export orders are creating a favorable backdrop for the export freight base. China-EU trade turnover in January-July increased by 13.6% YoY to $530.06 billion, with positive dynamics driven by shipments from China. At a recent Politburo meeting, authorities again emphasized support for industry and the high-tech sector over stimulating domestic consumption [Reuters].
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According to preliminary results for January—July, the volume of China-Europe-China rail container transportation increased by 30% YoY. The Central Eurasian Corridor contributed significantly to this growth (+26% YoY). A sharp increase in volumes on the Middle Corridor was also recorded in July (+168% YoY and +151% MoM), driven by higher shipments to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. According to Chinese forwarders, delays persist on the Caspian Sea section of the Middle Corridor: due to weather conditions and increased volumes at Aktau, vessel processing has slowed, with waiting times exceeding 20 days.
- Demand for Asia—Europe sea freight remains at a high level, despite some softening in recent weeks. High port utilization in China is limiting capacity and equipment, supporting a tight departure schedule [Linerlytica].
Freight rate trends
- The average cost of China-Europe rail freight in August is ~$10 000/FEU (COC). Rates on most routes decreased slightly compared to July (-$200), with the exception of shipments from Xi’an, where prices remained unchanged. The decline in rail freight rates on certain routes is offset by higher container leasing costs (average around $1 450; over recent weeks, leasing rates to key hubs have increased slightly). The main reason is the lengthening of the empty equipment turnaround cycle due to congestion in European ports and the persistent imbalance in cargo flows.
- WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of August 6, 2026, stood at $4 653/FEU(-6% MoM, 42% YoY) [Drewry]. As of the evening of August 13,2026, the latest WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam reading has declined by 5% WoW—down to $4 425/FEU. WCI Shanghai-Genoa fell to $5 506/FEU. Ocean freight rates are most likely to continue their gradual decline in the coming weeks, driven by the fading of the seasonal momentum and simultaneous capacity growth. Carriers are maintaining price discipline and striving to sustain rates, including through blank sailings. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates on the China-Northern Europe route for the second half of August are ~$5 200/FEU (-$200 over two weeks). The average transit time is 42 days, with a minimum of 31 days.
- Futures traders expect ocean freight rates to return to early 2026 levels, reaching approximately $2 000/FEU by the end of October.
Other trends
- On the morning of August 12, 2026, Brent futures exceeded $89/barrel, extending their rally for a 6th consecutive session. Prices are supported by persistent uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations and risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz [Trading Economics]. The cost of VLSFO in Singapore rose to ~$848/ton (up more than 20% since early July and more than 60% since the start of the Middle East conflict) [Ship&Bunker].
- Under the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), China plans to strengthen cross-border coordination to enhance the competitiveness of China—Europe rail services [China Daily]. China Railway intends to step up cooperation with railways along the route in terms of efficiency, service quality and tariffs. Priorities include expanding end-to-end scheduled services and strengthening coordination on pricing.
