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China-Europe logistics market
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The GEP Supply Chain Volatility Index remained elevated in May, although it eased slightly after the April peak [S&P Global]. Key drivers include uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, advance purchases of raw materials and stockpiling amid expectations of price increases and logistics disruptions. For the third consecutive month, abnormally high levels of inventory accumulation, shortages of production materials and rising transport costs have been recorded. According to GEP, the current surge in procurement is temporary, and once inventories are built up, companies will reduce purchasing activity, which will ease pressure on supply chains during 2H2026. For China-Europe trade, this means that the short-term import impulse in the coming months will give way to a downturn as European companies build sufficient inventories.
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In January-May, the China-Europe-China rail container volume increased by 28% YoY. The Central Eurasian Corridor accounts for the highest relative and absolute growth (27% YoY). On a monthly basis, a surge in volumes on the Central Eurasian Corridor (47% MoM) and some stabilization on competing corridors should also be noted. Market participants are noting a shift in demand towards rail due to disruptions in ocean freight.
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Demand for Asia-Europe ocean freight continues to grow on the back of an early seasonal upturn and other factors. According to Flexport, space on vessels for June is almost fully sold out, with demand significantly exceeding available supply. Major Chinese ports are reporting shortages of empty containers.
Freight rate trends
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The average cost of China-Europe rail freight in June starts from ~$10 000/FEU (COC). Depending on the origin, rates have increased by $300–600 compared to May levels. Container leasing rates on key routes have risen by $20–100 over recent weeks to approximately $1 400, with further increases also possible. Price growth is supported by stable demand and a shortage of capacity.
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WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of June 11, 2026, increase to $3 768/FEU (56% MoM, 33% YoY) [Drewry].
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UPDATE: As of the evening of June 18, 2026, the latest WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam reading has risen by 15% WoW — up to $4 342/FEU.
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Further rate increases are expected. Carriers have additionally raised tariffs from mid-June and announced further changes effective July 1. Namely, increases in spot rates, peak season surcharges (PSS) and bunker adjustment factors (BAF). For instance, MSC is setting a FAK rate of $7 500/FEU (Asia—Northern Europe and Asia—Mediterranean) effective July 1 [JOC] CMA CGM is raising FAK to $6 300/FEU (Asia—Northern Europe) and introducing a PSS of $2 000— 2 800/FEU depending on a service. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates on the China—Northern Europe route for the second half of June are approximately $5 500/FEU.
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Futures market participants expect China—Northern Europe ocean freight rates to be at approximately $5 000/FEU by the end of July 2026.
Other trends
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On the morning of June 17, 2026, Brent futures fell below $78/barrel (+8% since the start of the conflict) amid expectations of a peace agreement between the US and Iran and the resumption of shipping in the region [Trading Economics]. VLSFO in Singapore dropped to ~$665/ton (+28%) [Ship&Bunker].
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A complex operational situation persists on the railways of Northern Europe. Traffic is restricted on several key sections, leading to train delays [METRANS]. Delays in processing trains are being recorded in the ports of Hamburg, Bremerhaven, and Wilhelmshaven. Rotterdam and Duisburg are operating with minor delays. No changes to the situation are expected in the near future.
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Representatives of the railway administrations of six countries (Uzbekistan, Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan) have signed an agreement on the development of the CASCA+ multimodal route, which connects Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Turkey, with the prospect of access to the markets of Southeast Asia and Europe [Interfax]. The document provides for an increase in transportation volumes and the expansion of cooperation. The CASCA+ initiative has existed since 2019, but during this time the member countries have not made any significant decisions regarding its development.
Ocean freight: local market imbalance and associated factors are driving a pronounced increase in rates
The current situation and near-term outlook: active phase of the peak season and an upward trend in rates.
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Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight continues to grow on the back of an early seasonal upturn and other factors. According to Flexport, space on vessels for June is almost fully sold out, with demand significantly exceeding available supply. Major Chinese ports are reporting shortages of empty containers.
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Delays persist in Asian and European ports. Delays persist in Asian and European ports. As of June 13, 2026, delays in Northern Europe amounted to 0.29 million TEU (+7% WoW, +4% MoM), while in North Asia they stood at 1.28 million TEU (-16% WoW, -1% MoM) [Linerlytica]. The greatest difficulties are reported in Antwerp, Hamburg, and Rotterdam, where high terminal utilization is causing vessel delays and transshipment constraints [Kuehne+Nagel].
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WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of June 11, 2026, stood at $3 768/FEU (56% MoM, 33% YoY) [Drewry]. WCI Shanghai-Genoa rose to $5 139/FEU. Further rate increases are expected. Carriers have additionally raised tariffs from mid-June and announced further changes effective July 1: increases in spot rates, peak season surcharges (PSS), and bunker adjustment factors (BAF). For instance, MSC is setting a FAK rate of $7 500/FEU (Asia— Northern Europe and Asia—Mediterranean) effective July 1 [JOC]. CMA CGM is raising FAK to $6 300/FEU (Asia—Northern Europe) and introducing a PSS of $2 000–2 800/FEU depending on the direction. Sustained demand and capacity management are supporting the carriers’ plans. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates on the China—Northern Europe route for the second half of June are approximately $5 500/FEU.
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On June 16, the price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Singapore was approximately $665/ton (+28% since the start of the Middle East conflict) [Ship & Bunker].
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Medium- and Long-Term Outlook: Despite current volatility, the fundamental trend continues to point towards a growing supply-demand imbalance and intensifying competition in the coming years.
