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China-Europe logistics market
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GEP supply chain volatility index surged to 1.64 in April, up from 0.57 in March, reaching its highest level since 2022 [S&P Global]. Key drivers include the war in the Middle East, rising energy prices, and aggressive stockpiling by enterprises worldwide, particularly in Europe. In the short term, this will support the EU’s import demand, including purchases from China.
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In Q1 2026, China’s car exports grew by 57% YoY — to 2.2 million units [JOC]. Shipments of hybrid vehicles doubled, while exports of electric vehicles rose by 52%. Market participants expect export momentum to remain strong through the end of the year and believe that the global expansion of Chinese manufacturers is still in its early stages and will continue in the foreseeable future. According to estimates from Wallenius Wilhelmsen, China could export approximately 8 million vehicles in 2026, a 33% increase YoY compared to 2025.
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In January—April 2026, the volume of China—Europe—China rail container shipments grew by 27% YoY. The Central Eurasian Corridor service has been a key driver of this strong positive trend, with a 30% YoY increase. The surge in shipments along the Middle Corridor in April was driven by higher volumes destined for Azerbaijan.
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Demand for Asia—Europe ocean freight is showing early signs of recovery. According to Drewry, this year’s peak season is expected to start earlier than usual due to shippers accelerating shipments amid the risk of disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. Data from Linerlytica pointing to rising vessel utilization confirms this trend.
Freight rate trends
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In May, the average rail freight rate on the China—Europe route stood at around $8,300/FEU (SOC). During the month, rail rates from China to Europe increased by a further 5–10%. Container leasing costs remained broadly unchanged at around $1,300. Capacity on trains remains extremely limited. The upward trend in rates is expected to continue in June, with freight costs on key routes potentially reaching from $10,000/FEU (COC).
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As of 14 May 2026, the WCI Shanghai—Rotterdam rate stood at $2,413/FEU (+8% MoM, +19% YoY) [Drewry].
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UPDATE: As of the evening of May 21, 2026, the latest WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam reading has risen by 15% WoW — up to $2 773/FEU.
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The WCI Shanghai—Genoa rate rose to $3,701/FEU. On the Asia—Europe trade lane, the downward trend in freight rates appears to have reversed. Market participants expect rates to continue rising, with peak season surcharges (PSS) likely to be introduced from 1 June. According to GeekYum, average quotations from major carriers on the China—North Europe route for the second half of May were announced at around $3,200/FEU, rising to from $3,500/FEU for the first half of June.
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Freight futures market participants expect China—North Europe ocean freight rates to increase to $3,700/FEU by the end of July 2026.
Other trends
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The EU plans to require companies in key industries to source critical components from at least three suppliers in different countries in order to reduce dependence on China [Reuters]. A single supplier’s share would be capped at 30–40%. The EU is also considering tariffs on Chinese equipment and chemical products as part of efforts to reduce its trade deficit. The draft legislation is expected to be presented on 29 May.
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The operational situation at ports and on Germany’s rail network remains challenging due to infrastructure congestion, extended maintenance works and regular border closures [METRANS]. Import delays are reaching 2–3 days, and the situation is unlikely to improve in the near term.
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Chinese freight forwarders have started promoting the Northern Sea Route as an alternative to China—Europe rail. Against the backdrop of an «expected shortage of train capacity in Q3 2026», they are offering a service from Ningbo with a frequency of 3–4 departures per month. Transit time and cost are presented as comparable to current rail levels.
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South Korea’s parliament has approved a bill to promote the use of the Northern Sea Route, providing for the creation of a dedicated committee, the development of a national plan, workforce training and financial support for companies [PortNews]. PanStar Line has been selected as the operator for the first subsidised container voyage via the Northern Sea Route in September 2026 [InfraNews]. The voyage is expected to use a vessel with a capacity of 3,000 TEU.
