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CHINA-EUROPE LOGISTICS MARKET
Demand
- In October, China’s manufacturing PMI, according to the NBS estimate, fell from 50.1 to 49.3 points, pointing to a contraction in business activity. The equivalent index assessed by RatingDog / S&P Global stayed above the 50-point threshold at 52.0. Despite differences in sampling, both surveys pointed to a downward trend in export orders for Chinese companies, which may reflect their outsized growth in September. Overall, manufacturing activity remains strong, but slower export order growth limits the near-term outlook for shipping demand.
- In October, growth in Eurozone manufacturing business activity slowed somewhat. The manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7 points against 52.9 in September [S&P Global]. Output and new order growth rates eased, while export orders posted their strongest growth in more than 4.5 years. Delivery times lengthened and input cost growth accelerated.
- The Asia-Europe route is seeing a seasonal decline in demand for ocean freight. With capacity still high, this is intensifying competition for cargo among carriers.
- In January—September, China-Europe-China rail container volume increased by 27% YoY. The Central Eurasian Corridor (+21% YoY) and the Middle Corridor (+64% YoY) are making a significant contribution to growth. The high dynamics on the Middle Corridor are linked to increased shipments to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.
Rates
- The average cost of China-Europe rail freight in October is ~$10 300/FEU (COC). Rail freight rates in October-November are declining on a number of routes. The most noticeable decrease is observed in Chengdu and Chongqing (-$200). Rates of Xi’an routes are more stable. The cost of container allocation in key inland locations — Chengdu, Chongqing and Xi’an — has decreased by approximately $50-100 over recent weeks. Pricing in coastal provinces remains stable.
- WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of October 29, 2026, reached $3 686/FEU (+8% MoM, +105% YoY) [Drewry]. Ocean freight rates are likely to keep fluctuating around current levels in the near term. Excess capacity is limiting carriers’ ability to implement the rate hikes planned for November. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates* on the China-Northern Europe route for the first half of November are ~$3 800/FEU, with an exceptionally wide spread of offers: ~$3 000-5 000/FEU.
- COFIF/EC futures quotes point to a gradual decline in Asia-Northern Europe ocean freight rates to around $2 800/FEU by the end of November, followed by a recovery to $3 400/FEU by the end of 2026.
Other trends
- On October 22, 2026, China’s National Development and Reform Commission announced that preparations are under way to build second 1 435 mm gauge tracks on the cross-border sections at Alashankou-Dostyk and Manzhouli-Zabaikalsk. No timeline or planned capacity gains were disclosed.
- China has included freight digitalization in its railway science and technology development plan for 2026–2030 [State Railway Administration of the PRC]. Priorities include cross-border data exchange, mutual recognition of documents in multimodal transport and automation of terminal operations. The plan also provides for the development of cars with variable-gauge wheelsets and containers for transporting lithium batteries.
- SeaLegend delivered 14 thousand TEU to Europe via the Northern Sea Route during the recent navigation season [InfraNews]. 8 export voyages were completed over 2 months, with average load factors of around 90%. Demand this year was supported by delays and disruptions on the main Asia-Europe ocean freight corridor caused by a series of hurricanes in Asia in the second half of the summer. For 2027, the operator plans to increase departure frequency to 2-3 per week, and over 3-5 years to extend the season to 6-8 months.
OCEAN FREIGHT: DETAILED OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST TRENDS
Demand
The Asia-Europe route is seeing a seasonal decline in ocean freight demand. With capacity still high, this is intensifying competition for cargo.
According to Sea-Intelligence, average weekly capacity on the Asia-Northern Europe route reached a near-record level in October-November, exceeding 350 thousand TEU. The blank sailings carriers have planned for November will not be enough to offset the oversupply.
Ports
Operations at Chinese ports have resumed after the typhoon, but backlogs of cargo and high terminal utilization are slowing the handling of cargo flows [Kuehne+Nagel]. In Europe, delays have worsened due to the aftermath of storms and dockworker strikes [Linerlytica]. As of 1 November 2026, delays amounted to 1.59 million TEU in North Asia (+15% WoW, −19% MoM) and 0.55 million TEU in Northern
Europe (+20% WoW, +69% MoM) [Linerlytica].
