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China-Europe logistics market
Demand
- China’s trade growth with the EU remains below the overall dynamics of China’s foreign trade. In January-August, China-EU trade turnover grew by 8.1% YoY, compared to 17.6% for China’s foreign trade overall [NBS PRC]. In August, exports to the EU increased by approximately 6.6% YoY, following 16% in July. External forecasts point to continued growth in Chinese exports; however, weak import demand dynamics in Europe may limit further expansion of China-EU trade. Moreover, there are prerequisites for further slowdown.
- The EU is stepping up measures to reduce its trade imbalance with China. The European Union states its readiness to make more active use of trade instruments and expects results from negotiations with China by October [Reuters]. At the same time, the possibility of voluntary restrictions on supplies of Chinese hybrid vehicles to the EU is being discussed. The measures are still at the discussion stage; however, their implementation could affect one of the significant segments of Chinese exports and the cargo base for container shipping.
- Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight remains subdued [Drewry]. A short-term boost could come from increased shipments ahead of China’s Golden Week (October 1-7), but no signs of strengthening demand have yet been observed.
- In January-August, the volume of China-Europe-China rail container transportation increased by 26% YoY. The Central Eurasian Corridor contributed significantly to this growth (+22% YoY). A sharp increase in volumes on the Middle Corridor was also recorded over the past two months (to 9.8 and 7.8 thousand TEU, respectively), driven by higher shipments to Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.
Rates
- The average cost of China-Europe rail freight in October is ~$10 450/FEU (COC). For a number of inland hubs, a decrease in transportation costs relative to September is expected, including a $200 reduction from Xi’an. On some routes, rates will remain unchanged; on others, they will increase slightly. Container leasing rates remain high and continue to grow on a number of routes (+$50-100). Equipment owners prefer more profitable shipments to the US, which maintains the container shortage for the Europe direction.
- Ocean freight rates maintain a downward trend. WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of September 17, 2026, stood at $3 626/FEU (-18% MoM, 90% YoY) [Drewry]. Further gradual decline is likely in the coming weeks amid relatively weak demand and increased available capacity. At the same time, rising fuel costs (VLSFO ~$900/ton [Ship & Bunker]; twice the level at the beginning of the year) and persistent security risks may limit the pace of rate declines. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates* on the China-Northern Europe route for the first half of October are ~$3 450/FEU.
- Futures trader expectations have shifted upward over the past two weeks. While a decline to ~$2 500/FEU by the end of October had previously been forecast, the new expectation is ~$2 900/FEU.
Other trends
- Polish customs authorities are demanding that logistics companies pay multi-million-dollar customs duties on Chinese imports for the 2021–2026 period [InfraNews]. The European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) identified cases of incorrect classification of goods, which allowed anti-dumping duties to be avoided. Since it is not always possible to identify or hold the original importers liable, claims are being brought against other participants in the chain — rail carriers, forwarders, and customs representatives. European industry associations CER, CLECAT, FIATA, and UIRR have approached the European Commission for clarification.
- The first 2026 voyages along the Northern Sea Route from Asia to Europe have reached their destination ports. The container ship Dubai Tower, operated by Sea Legend, departed from Ningbo on August 15 and arrived at the British port of Teesport on September 9 — the voyage time ~25 days [SeatradeMaritime]. A total of 8 voyages are planned for 2026 as part of the China Arctic Express service.
- In addition, the South Korean vessel PanStar Acro departed from Busan on August 22 and reached Felixstowe in 21 days [The Maritime Executive]. The vessel then arrived in Rotterdam on September 13 and in Gdańsk on September 18. The shipment from South Korea is a pilot project intended to assess the commercial feasibility of transportation along the NSR.
