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China-Europe logistics market
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In China, a sustained gap persists between export and domestic consumption dynamics. Retail sales in May contracted by 0,6% YoY, while exports show robust growth, particularly in the «clean technology» segment. In January-April 2026, shipments increased by 42%, and in May, electric vehicle exports reached a record $9.2 billion (+50% YoY) [Linerlytica, Bloomberg]. The strong export momentum is offsetting weakness in the domestic market and sustaining high utilization of container lines on the China-Europe route.
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In June, the Eurozone manufacturing sector continued to show moderate growth despite an overall decline in business activity. Manufacturing PMI, according to preliminary data, remained above the 50-point mark [S&P Global]. New orders in industry resumed growth, cost inflation eased to its lowest level since February and producer prices increased at the weakest pace in three months. Component delivery times again increased, but less significantly than in previous months. The relative stability of Europe’s industrial sector may be viewed as a positive signal for international trade amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
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Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight remains consistently high. Vessel space is almost fully sold out, with demand significantly exceeding supply. In addition to the early peak season, an additional boost is being provided by a surge in exports of cleantech goods (electric vehicles, solar panels, etc.).
Freight rate trends
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The average cost of China-Europe rail freight in July is ~$10 000/FEU (COC). Rates on many routes remained at June levels, indicating that the market has entered a phase of stabilization. On certain routes, a decline in rail freight rates is offset by higher container leasing costs (the average rate is ~$1 300–1 400). Elevated prices are supported by stable demand and capacity constraints.
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WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of June 25, 2026, stood at $4 392/FEU (54% MoM, 37% YoY)[Drewry].
UPDATE: As of the evening of July 2, 2026, the latest WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam reading has risen by 7% WoW — up to $4 682/FEU.
WCI Shanghai-Genoa rose to $5 759/FEU. Further rate increases are expected. Effective July 1, carriers are raising tariffs, peak season surcharges (PSS) and bunker adjustment factors (BAF). For instance, CMA CGM is setting a FAK rate of $6 300/FEU (Asia—Northern Europe) and $7 700–8 500/FEU (Asia— Mediterranean), as well as a PSS of $1 000–1 400/TEU depending on the service. Sustained demand and capacity management are supporting carriers’ plans. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates on the China—Northern Europe route for the first half of July are ~$6 000/FEU. -
Futures market participants expect China—Northern Europe ocean freight rates to be at ~$4 800/FEU by the end of July 2026.
Other trends
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On the morning of July 1, 2026, Brent futures stabilized at $73/barrel — thus, quotes have retreated to February 2026 levels [Trading Economics]. The market awaits updates on US-Iran negotiations in Doha. VLSFO in Singapore is approximately at ~$690/ton (+33%) [Ship&Bunker].
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On June 22, an international conference on the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) was held in Brussels, organized by KTZ with the support of the Government of Kazakhstan [Rail-news.kz]. The event brought together over 100 participants, including representatives of the European Commission, the European Parliament, the EBRD, the EIB and major logistics companies (DHL, Maersk, DB Cargo, Rhenus, Hellmann, and others). The discussion focused on increasing the capacity of the Middle Corridor, infrastructure modernization, digitalization, and integration with the EU’s Global Gateway initiative. Also, during the official visit of the President of Kazakhstan to Brussels, commercial agreements worth over $12 billion were signed in the areas of transport, digitalization, and industry [Interfax].
Ocean freight: local market imbalance and associated factors are driving a pronounced increase in rates
The current situation and near-term outlook: active phase of the peak season and an upward trend in rates.
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Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight remains consistently high. Vessel space is almost fully sold out, with demand significantly exceeding supply. In addition to the early peak season, an additional boost is being provided by a surge in exports of cleantech goods (electric vehicles, solar panels, etc.).
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Delays persist in Asian and European ports. The most challenging situation is in Europe, driven by extreme heat and strikes [Kuehne+Nagel]. As of June 27, 2026, delays in Northern Europe amounted to 0.5 million TEU (+56% WoW, +94% MoM), while in North Asia they stood at 1.36 million TEU (-12% WoW, -14% MoM) [Linerlytica]. Transshipment hubs are experiencing multi-day berthing delays, which is exacerbating equipment shortages in Asian ports [Flexport].
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WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of June 25, 2026, stood at $4 392/FEU (54% MoM, 37% YoY) [Drewry]. WCI Shanghai-Genoa rose to $5 759/FEU. Further rate increases are expected. Effective July 1, carriers are raising tariffs, peak season surcharges (PSS), and bunker adjustment factors (BAF). For instance, CMA CGM is setting a FAK rate of $6 300/FEU (Asia— Northern Europe) and $7 700–8 500/FEU (Asia—Mediterranean), as well as a PSS of $1 000–1 400/TEU depending on the service. Sustained demand and capacity management are supporting carriers’ plans. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates on the China— Northern Europe route for the first half of July are ~$6 000/FEU.
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As of June 30, 2026, the price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Singapore was approximately $690/ton (+33% since the start of the Middle East conflict) [Ship & Bunker].
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Medium- and Long-Term Outlook: despite current volatility, the fundamental trend continues to point towards a growing supply-demand imbalance and intensifying competition in the coming years.
