The consultancy forecasts average annual growth of 3.9% through the end of the decade.
Europe is now the largest regional market, with an average annual market volume of EUR 77.7 billion in 2024–2026. Asia follows at EUR 73.9 billion, according to SCI Verkehr’s Worldwide Market for Railway Industries 2026 study.
The change reflects different investment cycles across the two regions. Europe is benefiting from large-scale fleet renewal, signalling projects and continued investment in established rail networks, while the Chinese market is losing some of the momentum generated by years of rapid network and fleet expansion.
Europe grows above global average
SCI Verkehr expects the European rail industry market to grow by an average of 4.4% annually between 2025 and 2030, above the global forecast of 3.9%.
Renewal of existing rail systems is one of the main drivers. Fleet procurement programmes, ETCS deployment, digital signalling and urban rail projects are all contributing to demand, while high-speed rail is providing additional growth in the passenger segment.
Asia remains close behind Europe in absolute market size but is expected to grow more slowly, at around 3.0% annually.
China is shifting from the rapid expansion phase of previous years towards greater demand for fleet renewal and after-sales services. India and markets in South-East Asia continue to expand, but SCI Verkehr says their growth is not large enough to fully compensate for the slowdown in China.
Passenger rail leads global growth
Passenger transport is currently the main driver of growth in the global rail industry.
SCI Verkehr points in particular to the recovery of passenger rail following the pandemic and to continued investment in urban transport systems. Urbanisation, expansion of existing metro and light rail networks and new projects in growing metropolitan areas are supporting the strongest growth rates within the passenger rail technology market.
High-speed rail is another significant growth segment, particularly in Europe, where several large procurement and infrastructure programmes are under way.
The regional picture also shows relatively strong growth outside the two largest markets. North America has an estimated market volume of EUR 29.9 billion and is forecast to grow by 4.2% annually, while the CIS region stands at EUR 28.5 billion with expected growth of 2.9%.
Smaller markets are expected to post some of the highest percentage growth rates. Africa and the Middle East are forecast to grow by 6.1% annually from a current market volume of EUR 9.0 billion, while South and Central America are expected to expand by 5.2% from EUR 4.5 billion. Australia, also at EUR 4.5 billion, is forecast to grow by 4.5%.
Freight rail remains under pressure
The outlook is considerably weaker for freight-related segments.
SCI Verkehr says rail freight and the associated technology markets remain under pressure globally as geopolitical uncertainty, trade restrictions and armed conflicts continue to alter freight flows and suppress investment momentum.
The situation is particularly difficult in Europe. Traditional bulk freight volumes are declining, rail networks are heavily utilised and weak industrial activity continues to weigh on demand for freight transport and related rail technology.
This creates a notable contrast with the broader European rail market. While Europe has moved into first place globally thanks to passenger rolling stock, signalling, urban rail and high-speed investment, its freight segment continues to face structural and cyclical pressure.
Outside Europe, the picture is more mixed. SCI Verkehr says freight market growth is being supported by stronger demand in Asia, South and Central America, Africa and the Middle East. North America, meanwhile, is described as having already reached the bottom of its current freight market cycle.
Digitalisation supports all segments
Digitalisation is another major contributor to the expected 3.9% annual growth of the global rail industry.
SCI Verkehr says investment in digital railway operations is increasing across all product segments, with the strongest relative effect visible in systems technology. Although this remains smaller in absolute market volume than rolling stock or infrastructure, digital systems are becoming a more important part of investment programmes.
Infrastructure investment is also continuing to rise globally, but its growth rate is slowing. Rather than focusing primarily on rapid network expansion, investment is increasingly shifting towards renewal, capacity upgrades and modernisation of existing networks.
The figures come from SCI Verkehr’s Worldwide Market for Railway Industries 2026 study, which assesses the development of the global railway supply market through 2030.
Source: https://railmarket.com/
