New analysis from Sea-Intelligence suggests this equates to some 3m teu of vessel capacity — a fleet roughly equivalent in size to that of the world’s fifth-largest carrier.
Schedule reliability fell to just below 50% in August, following an already sharp deterioration in July. Sea-Intelligence said reliability had fallen 12.7% over the two months, with only three periods since measurement began in 2011 recording a steeper decline.
The average delay of vessels arriving late also increased, to 6.8 days, a level exceeded only during the worst disruptions of Covid. The consultancy said June-August had represented the largest two-month increase in vessel delays in its dataset.
«The main driver of the worsening delays, and hence capacity absorption, is a continuing stream of typhoons impacting major ports in Asia,» Sea-Intelligence explained.
It argued that the impact on available capacity was particularly significant against the pre-pandemic baseline. Between 2011 and 2019, an average 2.2% of global capacity was absorbed by vessel delays. The current 8.5% represents a deviation of more than six percentage points, which Sea-Intelligence said was having a significant effect on the global supply/demand balance.
The consultancy also warned that the congestion could persist well into next year.
It explained that during the pandemic, capacity absorption from congestion peaked at 13.8%, before falling to 3.6%, over 16 months. During the Red Sea crisis, absorption reached 6.5% before declining to 3.7% within six months.
Those episodes suggest congestion can improve by around 0.5-0.6 percentage points a month. Applying that recovery rate to current conditions, Sea-Intelligence estimated it could take seven to ten months for capacity absorption to return to the low point recorded in June 2025.
And, by this calculation, a return just to the level at the end of 2025 could take six to eight months. And the analyst added: «The current situation is therefore unlikely to be fully resolved before Chinese New Year peak in 2027.»
That holiday falls on 6 February, meaning Asian ports could still be dealing with congestion as carriers and shippers prepare for the pre-CNY cargo surge.
The consultancy said the extent to which the current disruption proved temporary, or developed into a more persistent constraint on capacity, would become clearer as the typhoon season and its effects on Asian port operations subsided.
