In 2022, the Government of the Russian Federation approved a strategy for the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The exploitation of the Arctic resource base remains the primary driver of this route’s development. By 2035, the development of Arctic deposits is expected to account for up to 80 percent of cargo throughput along the NSR, with total volume projected to reach 238 million tonnes, representing a six-fold increase compared with the 2025 figure of 37.04 million tonnes.
The Arctic corridor may be used for transit shipments between Europe and Asia.
In the longer term, the NSR is expected to become a fully operational route supporting global trade and capable of competing with the Suez Canal for cargo flows. Among its evident advantages are shorter delivery times. For instance, the distance from Murmansk to Shanghai via the NSR is 7,300 km, compared with 11,200 km via the Suez Canal. Transit time is reduced by 30–50 percent. For producers, this means lower transport costs for their goods transported via the NSR, even after accounting for additional icebreaker escort costs.
Nadezhda Malysheva, Development Director at the PortNews information and analytical agency, also notes the absence of piracy and military risks as additional advantages of the NSR. In 2025, a decline in traffic through the Suez Canal was observed, including as a result of an increase in attacks on commercial vessels.
The NSR development plan provides for an increase in transit cargo volumes of 37 million tonnes by 2035. According to Nadezhda Malysheva, besides containerised cargo, transit shipments along the NSR may also be of interest for the transport of bulk (dry bulk) commodities, such as coal, timber, and metals, as well as tanker and oversized cargo.
The NSR is attracting growing interest from international container shipping lines, particularly those based in Asia.
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In October 2025, a vessel originating from China completed the first transit voyage via the NSR to Europe. The journey took 20 days, compared with 40–50 days via the alternative route (Suez Canal). Over the medium term, Russia and China intend to regularise such voyages, with a view to increasing annual transit volumes to 20 million tonnes.
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India is also interested in the Arctic route. With the participation of Indian companies, four diesel-powered icebreakers are planned to be built for cargo shipments along the NSR. India is also considering the NSR as a transport corridor for exporting and transiting its products to Russia and global markets.
The main constraint to the expansion of NSR shipping, according to Nadezhda Malysheva, is seasonality, alongside a shortage of reinforced ice-class container vessels, as well as elevated insurance costs driven by limited communication infrastructure resulting from insufficient satellite coverage at high latitudes.
Igor Kuznetsov, Director of the Business Consulting at TeDo, believes that ensuring NSR freight traffic growth requires the development of port terminal infrastructure, as well as large-scale investment in cargo and icebreaker fleets, for example, high-capacity Arc7 ice-class container ships.
The NSR development programme is designed to address these issues. Specifically, the document provides for the construction of nine ice-class container vessels. In addition, it plans to build a vessel for transporting oversized cargo and goods for northern supply deliveries, as well as a cargo ship with a nuclear power installation.
By 2035, the icebreaker fleet will be significantly expanded. By 2030, the number of nuclear-powered icebreakers is expected to increase from 8 to 11, and to 15 by 2035. In addition, four diesel-electric icebreakers are scheduled to be commissioned.
