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China-Europe logistics market
Demand outlook
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In March 2026 industrial activity in the Eurozone expanded once again. The Manufacturing PMI reached 51.6 (+0.8 pp MoM) — a 45-month high [S&P Global]. However, the key trend in March was the deterioration of supply conditions. Component delivery times lengthened more sharply than at any point since August 2022, while input cost inflation surged to its highest level since October 2022. In turn, China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 (-1,3 pp MoM) [RatingDog / S&P Global]. As in Europe, the dynamics were impacted by supply chain disruptions and rising raw material prices. Nevertheless, new orders (including export orders) for enterprises continued to grow.
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According to preliminary results for January-March, China-Europe-China rail container volume surged by 29% YoY. This growth was primarily driven by the Central Eurasian Corridor (36% YoY), while performance on other corridors was mixed.
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Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight remains at a stable level without sharp fluctuations. According to Xeneta, shippers are acting cautiously and continue to book space at current rates in order to minimize the risk of supply disruptions and avoid even more unfavorable conditions during the peak summer season.
Freight rate trends
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In April, the average cost of China—Europe rail freight is approximately $7,000 per FEU (SOC), with container leasing costs at around $1,200. Since the beginning of the year, overall costs have risen by about 20%. According to freight forwarders, further rate increases are expected over the month for shipments originating from the eastern provinces (Yiwu, Jinhua), driven by a shortage of train space and rising equipment costs. In southern China, space is virtually unavailable, and shippers are being advised to route their cargo through Chongqing and Chengdu. Meanwhile, Zhengzhou has reduced its April train plan and suspended booking acceptance until April 20, with possible price hikes on the horizon. In Wuhan, space is being allocated through a bidding process, with premiums of around $500.
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WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of 02.04.2026, stood at $2 543/FEU (24% MoM, 10% YoY) [Drewry]. WCI Shanghai-Genoa rose to $3 529/FEU. Rates on the Asia-Europe route remain relatively stable despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Drewry expects spot rates to rise in the coming weeks due to higher bunker costs and the introduction of emergency fuel surcharges. According to GeekYum, quoted rates for April on the China—Northern Europe route are at higher levels than current indices, reaching up to $4 000 per FEU for certain carriers (e.g., COSCO).
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Futures traders expect China—Northern Europe ocean freight rates to rise to $3 150/FEU by the end of July 2026 [Linerlytica].
Other trends
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As of the morning of April 8, 2026, Brent futures fell more than 15%, to ~$90/barrel following news of a two-week ceasefire and Iran’s promise to open the Strait of Hormuz [Trading Economics]. Very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Singapore dropped to <$900 per ton [Ship&Bunker]. Earlier, volatility in commodity markets had triggered an increase in fuel surcharges for deliveries across Europe, raising logistics costs on the final leg of the China—Europe route. In EU countries, the fuel surcharge rose by 5–7%.
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According to sources, CMA CGM has reached an agreement with Iran for the safe withdrawal of 14 of its container ships that were blocked in the Persian Gulf [JOC]. The first vessel has already successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, with six more awaiting clearance. Earlier, three Chinese vessels, including two COSCO container ships, transited the strait. Fifteen MSC vessels and six Maersk vessels remain in the conflict zone.
Ocean freight: stabilization amid the absence of significant external changes
Current Situation and Near-Term Outlook: A supply-demand balance is maintained in the market, with price changes driven by rising operating costs.
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Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight remains at a stable level without sharp fluctuations. According to Xeneta, shippers are acting cautiously and continue to book space at current rates to minimize the risk of supply chain disruptions and avoid even more unfavorable conditions during the peak summer season.
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The situation in Asian and European ports remains challenging. Dense fog has disrupted operations in Shanghai, Ningbo, and Qingdao, with delays at Chinese ports having doubled since early March. Asian transit hubs are operating with terminal utilization of 80-85% and above. In Rotterdam and Antwerp, container dwell times are increasing due to bad weather and vessel congestion [Flexport]. There are also early signs of equipment shortages emerging in Asia.
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WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of 02.04.2026, stood at $2 543/FEU (24% MoM, 10% YoY) [Drewry]. WCI Shanghai-Genoa rose to $3 529/FEU. Rates on the Asia-Europe route remain relatively stable despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Drewry expects spot rates to rise in the coming weeks due to higher bunker costs and the introduction of emergency fuel surcharges. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates for the China— Northern Europe route for April are at $2 700/FEU, with a wide spread depending on the carrier: ranging from $2 250/FEU to $4 000/FEU.
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As of April 7, 2026, the price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Singapore was just under $900/ton (+66% since the start of the conflict) [Ship & Bunker]. According to S&P Global, remaining fuel stocks at the world’s largest bunkering hub, Singapore, now amount to less than three weeks’ supply [JOC].
