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China-Europe logistics market
Demand outlook
- China’s GDP grew by 5% YoY in Q12026, accelerating from 4,5% in the previous quarter [China Briefing]. The drivers were industry and exports in January-February, while domestic demand remains weak (retail sales grew by 2,4% YoY). In March, export dynamics slowed sharply to 2.5% YoY (down from 21.8% in January-February) due to supply chain disruptions and rising transport costs. Against the backdrop of slowing exports, Vice Premier of the State Council He Lifeng stated that China does not seek to intentionally create a trade surplus and intends to develop a special plan to expand imports in the near future [TASS].
- Based on the results of January-March, China-Europe-China rail container volume surged by 28% YoY. Growth was driven by the Central Eurasian Corridor (36% YoY), while dynamics on other corridors were mixed.
- The Asia-Europe ocean freight market is in a phase of seasonal lull. Available capacity exceeds the real needs of shippers, which is also due to the introduction of new vessels. Currently, there are no prerequisites for a dramatic change in market conditions. A potential shift in balance towards demand growth is possible no earlier than May, after the end of the holiday period in China and the start of the seasonal upturn.
Freight rate trends
- The average cost of China-Europe rail freight in April is ~$7 000/FEU (SOC). Container leasing costs are approximately $1 200. Since the beginning of the year, costs have risen by approximately 20%. The Xi’an logistics platform plans to increase rates on China-Europe routes in May by $300—500/FEU (according to other sources, the increase is more significant, ranging from $500–1,000). Rate increases are also expected for shipments from other provinces due to a shortage of space on trains and rising equipment leasing costs.
- WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of April 16, 2026, stood at $2 229/FEU (-10% MoM, −5% YoY) [Drewry]. WCI Shanghai-Genoa fell to $3 343/FEU. Rates on the Asia-Europe route have been gradually declining in recent weeks and are likely to stabilize at current levels in the near term. A rise may occur in May due to market factors and a revision of bunker surcharges. Average quoted rates on the China-Northern Europe route for the remainder of April are at $2 500/FEU, and for the first half of May, approximately $3 000/FEU.
UPDATE: As of the evening of April 23, 2026, the latest WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam reading has declined by 4% WoW — down to $2 147/FEU. 
- Futures traders expect China-Northern Europe ocean freight rates to rise to $3 100/FEU by the end of July 2026.
Other trends
- On April 22, 2026, Brent futures were above $97/barrel (+35% since the end of February) amid a lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [Trading Economics]. VLSFO in Singapore fell to ~$680/ton (+30%) [Ship&Bunker].
- On April 10, China State Railway Group held a coordination meeting in Xi’an with China-Europe transport operators [CARS]. According to participants, priorities for 2026 are shifting from volume growth to quality improvement: stricter control of congestion at border stations, reducing announcements of additional trains, and narrowing the price gap between routes.
- CMA CGM continues its phased return to the Suez Canal: the MEX route (Asia — Mediterranean) has been added to the BEX2 and MEDEX services [Linerlytica]. According to unconfirmed reports, the Ocean Rise Express (Japan-Northern Europe) service will also be rerouted via the Red Sea soon. CMA CGM remains the only major carrier to have resumed partial transits through the Suez Canal.
Ocean freight: stabilization amid the absence of significant external changes
Current Situation and Near-Term Outlook: Awaiting the peak season.
- The Asia-Europe sea freight market is in a phase of seasonal lull. Available capacity exceeds the real needs of shippers. Currently, there are no prerequisites for a dramatic change in market conditions. A potential shift in balance towards demand growth is possible no earlier than May, after the end of the holiday period in China and the start of the seasonal upturn.
- The operational situation in European ports remains relatively stable, but delays are increasing in Asia. As of April 19, 2026, the volume of delays in Northern Europe reached 0.33 million TEU (-10% WoW, +1% MoM), while in North Asia it stood at 1.4 million TEU (+11% WoW, +24% MoM), [Linerlytica]. Early signs of container equipment shortages are emerging in Asia.
- WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of April 16, 2026, stood at $2 229/FEU (-10% MoM, −5% YoY) [Drewry]. WCI Shanghai-Genoa fell to $3 343/FEU. Rates on the Asia-Europe route have been gradually declining in recent weeks and are likely to stabilize at current levels in the near term. A rise may occur in May due to market factors and a revision of bunker surcharges. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates on the China-Northern Europe route for the remainder of April are at $2 500/FEU, and for the first half of May, approximately $3 000/FEU.
