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China-Europe logistics market
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Business activity in the eurozone contracted in May following the high growth rates seen in April. The manufacturing PMI fell to 51.6 (-0.6 MoM). [S&P Global]. One of the main reasons for this was a slowdown in demand. New orders barely grew, while export orders declined again. Analysts attribute April’s surge in activity to advance purchases amid expectations of rising prices and logistical disruptions, rather than an improvement in the economic environment.
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A similar dynamic is observed in the Chinese economy. Activity grew in May, but the pace slowed compared to April: the manufacturing PMI fell to 51.8 (-0,4 MoM) [RatingDog / S&P Global]. New orders continued to grow at a rate above the long-term trend, although export orders saw a slight decline. Production dynamics showed one of the best results in recent years. At the same time, the situation in supply chains deteriorated again: delivery times increased and together with high raw material and energy prices, this is putting pressure on enterprise costs. Business expectations remain optimistic, although they have slightly decreased. Steady export demand from China to Europe and seasonal factors will support freight traffic.
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Demand for sea freight on the Asia-Europe trade lane is growing amid an early seasonal recovery. According to CEVA Logistics, exceptionally high demand was observed across all major routes at the end of May, and this trend is expected to continue into June [JOC]. The peak season this year is starting earlier than usual as shippers have rescheduled their shipments due to the risk of disruptions related to the Middle East conflict. An additional stimulus is the expected increase in bunker surcharges (BAF) from July 1. [Drewry].
Freight rate trends
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The average cost of rail freight on the China-Europe route in June: from ~$10,000/FEU (COC). Depending on the geography of departure, rates have increased by $300-600 compared to May levels. Container lease rates on key routes stand at around $1,350. The bullish price dynamics are supported by consistently strong demand and a shortage of transportation capacity.
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WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam as of 28.05.2026 stood at $2,861/FEU (35% MoM, 33% YoY) [Drewry].
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UPDATE: As of the evening of June 4, 2026, the latest WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam reading has risen by 25% WoW — up to $3 579/FEU.
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WCI Shanghai-Genoa rose to $4,253/FEU. Rates on all major routes out of Asia are climbing sharply. From June 1, increased FAK tariffs and peak season surcharges (PSS) come into effect [Linerlytica]. Rate growth may continue throughout June-July. According to GeekYum, the average quotes from the largest carriers for the China-Northern Europe route for the first half of June are stated at $4,600/FEU. According to Drewry, CMA CGM is raising its Asia-Mediterranean rate to $5,500—5,700/FEU from June 1.
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Futures market participants expect China-Northern Europe ocean freight rates to reach ~$4,800/FEU by the end of July 2026.
Other trends
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Chongqing has launched an end-to-end Asia-Europe Express service, combining rail transportation on the China-Europe route and the multimodal China- ASEAN corridor [iChongqing]. The operator of the Chongqing-Europe rail route (Yuxinou) and the operator of the China-ASEAN corridor have created a joint structure that provides a full range of services under a single contract. For January-April 2026, the volume of shipments grew by 69% YoY. The cargo includes cars and car parts, medical equipment and frozen products. The transit time is 20–25 days.
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The operational situation on Germany’s rail network remains critical due to infrastructure congestion, scheduled maintenance work and emergency incidents (a fire in Hanover and a derailment in the Port of Hamburg) [JOC]. There is a massive accumulation of trains in all directions, leading to network blockages and missed connections with vessels at ports. No improvement is expected in the near term.
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China is tightening control over how carriers and freight forwarders report their sea freight rates to the regulator (submitting tariff data to the Shanghai Exchange) [JOC]. In 2025, nine shipping lines (including ONE, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, MSC) and seven freight forwarders (NVOCC) were fined for violations. Market participants expect inspections to be expanded to other ports and requirements to be tightened further.
