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China-Europe logistics market
Demand
- In September, business activity grew in both China and Europe. China’s PMI, compiled by RatingDog and S&P Global, rose from 51.5 to 52.1, reaching a 5-month high. New order volumes also grew at the fastest pace in the last 5 months. In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9 — the highest since May 2022, with export orders showing the strongest expansion in more than 4 years [S&P Global]. For the cargo base on the China-Europe-China trade lane, these are positive medium-term signals, although actual demand for consumer goods in Europe remains weak.
- The EU is increasing its scrutiny of imports from China. On October 1, the European Commission reported that nearly 25% of EU imports show «concerning» growth rates, with supplies from China being the main driver [Reuters]. Particularly notable categories include: machinery and equipment, textiles, metals and chemical products. In 2026, the EU has already initiated 27 new trade investigations.
- Demand for Asia-Europe ocean freight remains subdued. Shipper activity expectedly declined during the holiday period in China [JOC]. Xeneta records a current contraction in demand and does not expect a noticeable recovery until the end of the year.
- According to preliminary data for January-September, the China-Europe-China rail container volume increased by 26% YoY. The Central Eurasian Corridor contributed significantly to this growth (+21% YoY). Middle Corridor shipments also remain at levels above 7 thousand TEU monthly, also ensuring positive dynamics on the route.
Rates
- The average cost of China-Europe rail freight in October is ~$10 450/FEU (COC). For a number of inland hubs, a decrease in transportation costs relative to September is expected, including a $200 reduction from Xi’an. On some routes, rates will remain unchanged; on others, they will increase slightly. Container leasing rates remain high and continue to grow on a number of routes (+$50-100). Equipment owners prefer more profitable shipments to the US, which maintains the container shortage for the Europe trade.
- Ocean rates maintain a downward trend. WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of October 1, 2026, stood at $3 399/FEU (-17% MoM, 111% YoY) [Drewry]. Further gradual decline is likely in the coming weeks amid relatively weak demand and increased available capacity. Carriers are attempting to limit further declines. MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have announced FAK rate increases for the second half of October to $4 200-5 100/FEU, depending on the service [JOC]. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates* on the China—Northern Europe route for the second half of September are ~$4 000/FEU (+$600 or +17% in two weeks).
- Futures trader expectations have again shifted upward. It is expected that by the end of 2026, Asia-Northern Europe ocean freight rates may reach ~$4 200/FEU.
Other trends
- China is strengthening institutional support for transport links with Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). On September 24, China’s Ministry of Transport held a separate conference on China-CEE logistics cooperation [Ministry of Transport of the PRC]. Discussions covered the China-Europe Railway Express, international road transport, multimodal services and digitalization. As a result, projects were signed in the areas of rail logistics, ports, overseas terminals and multimodal transportation..
- By the end of September, all 8 voyages of the China-Europe Arctic Express planned by Sea Legend for 2026 had set sail. According to preliminary data, the total volume of export cargo exceeded 14 thousand TEU [Government of Zhejiang Province]. The last shipments were moved from early October to late September due to the expected deterioration of ice conditions. The first data on return voyages has also emerged. The Dubai Tower, after calls at European ports, is returning to Asia via the Suez Canal, while the second Sea Legend voyage on the vessel Riyadh Mukaab is returning via the Northern Sea Route [Seatrade Maritime].
- KTZ is expanding its overseas terminal network. By 2030, it plans to construct 10 new terminals outside Kazakhstan, including in China, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The projects cover the main China-Europe routes and are aimed at developing KTZ’s own infrastructure along transit corridors [Logistan].
