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CHINA-EUROPE LOGISTICS MARKET
Demand
- China’s foreign trade accelerated sharply, including with the EU. In September, China’s exports grew by 36.3% YoY, imports by 31.0% and the foreign trade surplus reached $133.5 billion [Reuters]. Exports to the EU increased by approximately 25% YoY. High-tech products, particularly semiconductors, along with automobiles, were the main drivers of export growth.
- China and the EU reached a number of agreements on trade restrictions and market access [Ministry of Commerce of the PRC]. At the meetings on October 8–9, the parties agreed on 16 points, including continued discussions on reducing certain tariffs, a mechanism for trade in hybrid vehicles, further work on electric vehicles and a technical dialogue on the EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation. Of particular importance is the agreement on Chinese hybrid vehicles. China and the EU agreed to substantially lim it supplies of Chinese hybrids to the European market. Reuters reports a reduction in volumes by approximately half; the mechanism under consideration envisages a quota of around 350 thousand vehicles per year with subsequent gradual expansion. Later It also came to light that the EU plans to introduce new restrictions on chemical products, plastics and ferroalloys.
- After the end of national holidays in China, shipper activity partially recovered. For the full year 2026, growth in Asia—Europe ocean freight volumes is forecast at 8.4%. At the same time, a slowdown to 0.2% is expected already in 2027 [JOC; Drewry].
- In January—September, China-Europe-China rail container volume increased by 27% YoY. The Central Eurasian Corridor (+21% YoY) and the Middle Corridor (+64% YoY) are making a significant contribution to growth. The high dynamics on the Middle Corridor are linked to increased shipments to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.
Rates
- The average cost of China-Europe rail freight in October is ~$10 400/FEU (COC). Rail freight rates in October-November are declining on a number of routes. The most noticeable decrease is observed in Chengdu and Chongqing (-$200). Updated rates for shipments from Xi’an are pending. The cost of container allocation in key inland locations — Chengdu, Chongqing and Xi’an — has decreased by approximately $50-100 over recent weeks. Pricing in coastal provinces remains stable.
- After 13 weeks of decline, ocean freight rates on the Asia-Europe route have shown growth. WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of October 15, 2026, reached $3 522/FEU (-3% MoM, 111% YoY) [Drewry]. Amid a recovery in bookings, carriers have announced an increase in FAK rates from October 19 to $4 500-4 800/FEU [JOC]. Most likely, this will help stabilize pricing in the market. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates* on the China-Northern Europe route for the remainder of October are ~$4 000/FEU (unchanged over last 2 weeks). For November, rates are being quoted in the range of $3 900-4 800/FEU.
- COFIF/EC futures quotes indicate a gradual increase in Asia-Northern Europe freight rates from November to around $4 200/FEU by the end of the year.
Other trends
- On October 15, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan signed an agreement on the development of the Middle Corridor. The document provides for ensuring the necessary throughput capacity of the route, stability of tariff rates, priority servicing of liner vessels at ports, the use of a single transport document and one-stop-shop service. The agreement also includes provisions to ensure timely delivery and coordination among participants [Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Kazakhstan].
- China has tested rail transportation of electric vehicle batteries in specialized containers [IRJ]. This could enable future shipments on China—Europe rail routes, although the launch of international services has yet to be confirmed.
OCEAN FREIGHT: DETAILED OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST TRENDS
Demand
After the end of national holidays in China, shipper activity partially recovered. For the full year 2026, growth in Asia—Europe sea freight volumes is forecast at 8.4%. At the same time, a slowdown to 0.2% is expected already in 2027 [JOC; Drewry].
Ports
Congestion at North Asian ports is gradually easing, with a marked decline in the number of vessels awaiting berths by mid-October. However, the aftermath of recent typhoons persists. Sea-Intelligence expects that the normalization of port operations and the elimination of delays may drag on until the end of the year[JOC]. As of 17 October 2026, delays amounted to 1.21 million TEU in North Asia (-40% WoW, −36% MoM) and 0.39 million TEU in Northern Europe (+48% WoW, +2% MoM) [Linerlytica].
Schedule reliability on the Asia—Europe route fell to 4% in September, with the average delay reaching 9.9 days [Xeneta].
