According to the World Trade Organization’s report, Chinese exports showed solid growth in 2025, largely driven by stronger sales to Europe and Asia. Shipments to the European Union increased by 8.4%, helping to offset a sharp decline in exports to the United States, where the drop was around 20%. Overall, the increase in China’s exports to other destinations was almost three times the value of losses in the US market.
China actively redirected its shipments not only to Europe but also to fast‑growing markets in Africa and South America, where exports surged by 25.8% and 11.8% respectively. At the same time, China’s trade surplus expanded to US$ 1.2 trillion, with Europe contributing significantly: the surplus with Europe rose by US$ 73 billion. In Asia, the surplus jumped even more — by US$ 125 billion — reflecting China’s strengthening role as a dominant supplier of electronics and intermediate goods in regional production chains. Asian economies as a whole became the main driver of world trade growth, accounting for 71% of the total increase in merchandise trade volume.
AI‑related goods played a key role in reshaping the structure of global trade. This category includes electronic components such as chips and semiconductors, servers, data centre equipment, and telecommunications hardware that form the physical backbone of AI infrastructure. By the end of 2025, their share in world merchandise trade had approached 17%, while their value grew by 21.9% to reach US$ 4.18 trillion. Such products accounted for 42% of total global trade growth, even though they represent only one‑sixth of world trade. Regionally, Asia remains the hub of semiconductor and electronics production, providing the main contribution to the growth of this segment.
Outlook for 2026
A notable slowdown in trade dynamics is expected in 2026. In the baseline scenario, world merchandise trade volume growth would drop to 1.9%, while European imports would remain nearly flat, increasing by only 0.3%. European exports would continue to stagnate, with growth of 0.5%. If higher energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict prove durable, world merchandise trade growth could slow to 1.4%.
Commercial services, by contrast, are set to maintain higher growth. In 2026, European services exports are projected to rise by 5.5%, one of the strongest performances among regions. However, this optimistic scenario could be revised downward due to events in the Middle East.
The region remains critically important for global logistics. The Strait of Hormuz handles about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, but since the start of the conflict, traffic has fallen from 138 vessels per day to nearly zero. This has already triggered a spike in fuel prices and increases in transport and insurance costs. In addition, major Middle Eastern airports are key hubs for international air connectivity. Between 28 February and 9 March 2026, more than 40,000 of the 72,000 scheduled flights operating in and out of the Middle East were cancelled due to the ongoing conflict.
A protracted conflict could result in structurally higher fuel and transport costs, reduced transshipment activity, and lower consumer purchasing power. This may lead to a reorientation of trade flows towards alternative, lower‑risk routes. According to WTO estimates, global transport services volume growth in 2026 could be only 1.0%, compared to the 2.6% projected in the absence of the conflict.
