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China-Europe logistics market
Demand outlook
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In April, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 (a 4-year high) [S&P Global]. The main driver was the build-up of advance purchases by companies due to continued tensions in the Middle East and risks of supply chain disruptions. Export orders for the EU grew for the first time in 4 years, but also driven by advance purchases. Input cost inflation reached a 46-month peak, while output price growth hit an all-time high. At the same time, business expectations fell to their lowest level since November 2024. Taken together, these factors point to a negative outlook for industry and consumption in the Eurozone.
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In April, China’s manufacturing industry showed its strongest growth since December 2020: the manufacturing PMI reached 52.2 (+1,4 p MoM) [RatingDog/ S&P Global]. Output grew at the fastest pace since June 2024, and export orders have been rising for the fourth consecutive month. Inflationary pressures intensified, with output prices increasing the most in 4.5 years. Business expectations improved noticeably, but domestic consumption dynamics continue to lag behind production. In short, exports remain the main driver of China-Europe trade.
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The Asia-Europe ocean freight market is in a phase of seasonal lull. Capacity exceeds demand, and carriers are moderately reducing capacity. There are no prerequisites for a dramatic change in market conditions. A potential shift in balance towards demand growth is possible in May, after the end of the holiday period in China and the start of the seasonal upturn. However, according to a Xeneta expert, a pronounced peak season is unlikely, and any potential demand recovery will be modest.
Freight rate trends
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The average cost of China-Europe rail freight in May is approximately ~$8 000/FEU (SOC). Container leasing costs are around $1 300. According to freight forwarders, some logistics platforms in China may revise their rates in the middle of the month. Train space is extremely limited, although a slight easing of demand may occur toward the end of the month. Rates are expected to remain elevated.
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WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of April 30, 2026, declined to $2 127/FEU (-16% MoM,-3% YoY) [Drewry].
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UPDATE: As of the evening of May 7, 2026, the latest WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam reading has risen by 2% WoW — up to $2 170/FEU.
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Rates on the Asia-Europe route have been gradually declining in recent weeks and are likely to stabilize at the current level in the short term. An increase is possible in May due to market factors and adjustments in bunker surcharges. According to GeekYum, the average quotes from the largest carriers on the China-Northern Europe route for the first half of May are reported at $2,700/FEU, while for the second half of May, they start from $3,000/FEU.
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Futures market participants expect shipping rates for China-Northern Europe to rise to $3,300/FEU by the end of July 2026.
Other trends
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On the morning of May 6, 2026, Brent futures were below $108/barrel (+48% since the end of February) amid a lack of progress in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [Trading Economics]. VLSFO in Singapore rose to approximately $860/ton (+65%) [Ship&Bunker].
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KTZ Express Shipping is forming a maritime fleet to develop the TMTM [rail-news.kz]. Contracts have been signed for the construction of six universal dry cargo-container ships of the «river-sea» class (deadweight up to 9,900 tons, capacity up to 537 TEU).
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CMA CGM continues its phased return to the Suez Canal. Last week, routes OCR (Asia — Northern Europe) and EPIC (Indian Subcontinent — Northern Europe) were added to two existing services from Asia to the Mediterranean. According to Linerlytica, this strategy, given the current market conditions, may encourage other carriers to expedite their return to the route through the Suez Canal.
Ocean freight: stabilization amid the absence of significant external changes
Current Situation and Near-Term Outlook: Awaiting the peak season.
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The Asia-Europe ocean freight market is in a phase of seasonal lull. Capacity exceeds demand, and carriers are moderately reducing capacity. There are no prerequisites for a dramatic change in market conditions. A potential shift in balance towards demand growth is possible in May, after the end of the holiday period in China and the start of the seasonal upturn. However, according to a Xeneta expert, due to the aftermath of the Middle East crisis, a pronounced peak season is unlikely, and any potential demand recovery will be modest.
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In recent weeks, the operational situation in Asia has improved, while delays have begun to increase in European ports. As of May 3, 2026, the volume of delays in Northern Europe reached 0.29 million TEU (+30% WoW, -24% MoM), while in North Asia it stood at 0.92 million TEU (-17% WoW, -27% MoM), [Linerlytica].
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WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of April 30, 2026, declined to $2,127/FEU (-16% MoM, -3% YoY) [Drewry]. WCI Shanghai-Genoa decreased to $3,039/FEU. Rates on the Asia- Europe route have been gradually declining in recent weeks and are likely to stabilize at current levels in the short term. An increase is possible in May due to market factors and adjustments in bunker surcharges. According to GeekYum, average quotes from the largest carriers on the China-Northern Europe route for the first half of May are reported at $2,700/FEU, while for the second half of May, they start from $3,000/FEU.
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As of May 5, 2026, the price of low-sulfur fuel (VLSFO) in Singapore was approximately $860/ton (+65% since the beginning of the conflict) [Ship & Bunker].
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Medium- and long-term outlook: the overall trend still indicates a growing imbalance between supply and demand and increased competition. Despite the volatility in spot rates, long-term tenders for 2026 are being conducted with significant discounts for shippers [Xeneta].
