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China-Europe logistics market
Demand
- Based on August results, China’s PMI rose to 49.8 (+0.6 pp MoM) [S&P Global]. Of particular note is the new orders index, which rose from 48.5 to 50.6. Among 21 industries, improvement was recorded in 16; high-tech and machinery manufacturing remain particularly strong. The recovery in orders directly supports the formation of the export cargo base — equipment, electronics, machinery, and components.
- The Eurozone PMI for August rose to 52.7, a 51-month high, up from 51.9 in July. The manufacturing index climbed to 53.3. In Germany, the PMI reached 54.3, also a roughly four-year high; the growth was accompanied by an acceleration in output, new orders, and export demand.
- In January—August, the volume of China—Europe—China rail container transportation increased by 26% YoY. The Central Eurasian Corridor contributed significantly to this growth. (+22% YoY). A sharp increase in volumes on the Middle Corridor was also recorded over the past two months (in August, +112% YoY and −19% MoM), driven by higher shipments to Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.
- Demand on the Asia—Europe trade lane remains high, as a reduction in the number of blank sailings on the route from 4 to 1 is returning additional capacity to the market [Flexport].
Rates
- The average cost of China—Europe rail freight in September is ~$10 600/FEU (COC). Against the backdrop of a container equipment shortage, leasing rates continued to rise across almost all routes (up approximately 15% for inland hubs; container leasing costs ~$1,500-1,700 on China—Germany routes). At the same time, rail freight rates increased on several key European stations. The increase averaged $100, with the rise being more pronounced for shipments from inland Chinese provinces.
- Rates maintain a downward trend. WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of September 3, 2026, stood at $4 092/FEU (-12% MoM, 72% YoY) [Drewry]. In the coming weeks, rates are likely to continue their gradual decline amid growing capacity. Carriers are striving to maintain current rate levels. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates on the China—Northern Europe route for the second half of September are ~$4 100/FEU.
- Futures trader expectations have shifted upward again over the past two weeks. While a decline to ~$2 000/FEU by the end of October had previously been forecast, the new expectation is ~$2 400/FEU, with the expected level subsequently reaching ~$3 000/FEU by the end of the year.
Other trends
- According to JMC data, in 1H2026, the total volume of container exports from Asia to Europe reached 10.77 million TEU (+12.6% YoY), setting a new record for the first half of the year. China remains the primary region for Asian exports to Europe. In 1H2026, container exports from China to Europe amounted to 8.53 million TEU (+14.6% YoY).
- In the first week of September, CMA CGM, Maersk, MSC, and Wan Hai transited approximately 30 vessels through Bab-el-Mandeb. The number of vessels continuing to route around Africa has decreased to approximately 280 vessels (~4.0 million TEU), down from 380 vessels (~5.5 million TEU) earlier this year. At the same time, Hapag-Lloyd has still not joined Maersk’s Gemini partner in using the Suez Canal. Nevertheless, a clear trend is emerging: carriers are more actively returning vessels on the Asia-Europe route from the long route around Africa to the traditional route via the Red Sea and Suez Canal in order to accelerate fleet turnover [Seatrade Marintime].
Ocean freight: detailed overview of the latest trends
Demand
Demand on the Asia-Europe trade lane remains high, as a reduction in the number of blank sailings on the route from 4 to 1 is returning additional capacity to the market [Flexport].
Ports
Port utilization in Europe and China has decreased somewhat over the past week. At the end of August, Typhoon Saude, following the recent Typhoon Dolphin, again caused schedule disruptions at terminals in Northeast Asia [JOC]. On September 4, strikes by workers took place at Dutch ports, affecting throughput capacity. As of September 6, 2026, delays in Northern Europe amounted to 0.33 million TEU (-26% WoW, -15% MoM), while in North Asia they stood at 2.09 million TEU (-19% WoW, unchanged MoM) [Linerlytica].
