Economic & Demand Outlook
• Pickup in growth momentum but could be vulnerable to geopolitical risks. E.g. a major escalation of the conflict in the Middle East would materially impact growth.
• S&P has revised their real GDP growth forecasts for 2024 upwards in some major economies in their April forecast round. These include the eurozone, Canada, Japan and Russia. • Daily deliveries since March continue, with over 300,000 TEU scheduled monthly from April to June.
• Vessel diversions to the Cape of Good Hope, strong demand increase, and additional summer service deployments absorb available supply.
Rates
• The WCI and SCFI indices are 66% and 94% higher YoY.
• The SCFI rose for a 4th week, driven by gains in Latin America, Middle East, and Australia.
• We see signs for increasing rates on all Asia outbound lanes well into May as carriers have announced rate hikes in May.
• Transpacific contract rates are settling higher than last year, and current spot rates are prompting shippers to negotiate at these elevated levels.
Schedule Reliability
• Global schedule reliability score further improved by 1.6 ptp to 54.6% as the round-Africa routings via the Cape of Good Hope route normalise.
• Port congestion situation remained unchanged while it steady declined over the past months.
Capacity Outlook
• A new containership deliveries drives a 9.6% annual fleet growth rate. Vessel diversions and additional summer service deployments absorb available supply.
• In the upcoming weeks, the number of vessels redirected to the Cape Route is expected to reach 5 million TEU.
• The idle container vessel fleet currently stands at 0.4% (62 vessels) only.
• Equipment issues across Asia Pacific increasing.
